Upstart (UPST) slides 14% as investors digest Q1 results and near-term volume signals

Upstart Holdings (UPST) is down 14.0% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The selloff appears tied to investors recalibrating expectations after Upstart’s first-quarter update showed solid origination and revenue growth but weaker profitability metrics versus last year. The move may also reflect caution around near-term origination pacing into Q2, which can meaningfully impact fee revenue and margins for an AI-driven lending marketplace.

Details:

Upstart reported first-quarter transaction volume of about 425,356 loans and total originations of roughly $3.4 billion, alongside total revenue of $308 million.

Despite the topline growth, profitability softened versus the prior year, with contribution margin around 50% (down from 55%) and adjusted EBITDA margin around 13% (down from 20%).

The quarter produced a GAAP net loss of about $6.6 million (roughly $0.07 per diluted share), wider than the year-ago period.

Upstart reaffirmed its full-year 2026 outlook (including approximately $1.4 billion of total revenue and about $294 million of adjusted EBITDA), but some market participants may have expected a raise; separately, April origination data implied Q2 volumes could track below prevailing Street expectations.

Sources:

Upstart Investor Relations, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Investing.com

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$UPST Insider Trading Activity

$UPST insiders have traded $UPST stock on the open market 18 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 2 have been purchases and 16 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $UPST stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

PAUL GU (Chief Technology Offier) has made 2 purchases buying 100,000 shares for an estimated $3,922,799 and 0 sales.
SCOTT DARLING (Chief Legal Officer) has made 0 purchases and 6 sales selling 22,983 shares for an estimated $907,272.
SANJAY DATTA (Chief Financial Officer) has made 0 purchases and 3 sales selling 21,606 shares for an estimated $736,698.
NATALIA MIRGORODSKAYA (See Remarks) has made 0 purchases and 6 sales selling 3,472 shares for an estimated $113,717.
KERRY WHORTON COOPER sold 1,500 shares for an estimated $75,000

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard. You can access data on insider stock transactions through the Quiver Quantitative API.

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$UPST Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 179 institutional investors add shares of $UPST stock to their portfolio, and 242 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

SLATE PATH CAPITAL LP removed 2,731,974 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $119,469,223
MORGAN STANLEY added 2,554,591 shares (+154.6%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $111,712,264
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ added 2,293,367 shares (+935.8%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $100,288,938
CLEAR STREET GROUP INC. added 1,490,502 shares (+260.9%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $65,179,652
SQUAREPOINT OPS LLC removed 1,356,294 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $59,310,736
HALTER FERGUSON FINANCIAL INC. added 1,052,039 shares (+253.3%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $26,984,800
FULLER & THALER ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC. removed 1,046,143 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $45,747,833

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard. You can access data on hedge funds moves and 13F filings through the Quiver Quantitative API.

$UPST Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $UPST recently. We have seen 8 analysts offer price targets for $UPST in the last 6 months, with a median target of $37.5.

Here are some recent targets:

Vincent Caintic from BTIG set a target price of $43.0 on 04/09/2026
Dan Dolev from Mizuho set a target price of $51.0 on 03/26/2026
Kyle Peterson from Needham set a target price of $40.0 on 03/11/2026
David M. Scharf from Citizens set a target price of $20.0 on 02/18/2026
Giuliano Bologna from Compass Point set a target price of $30.0 on 02/17/2026
Will Nance from Goldman Sachs set a target price of $35.0 on 02/13/2026
Arvind Ramnani from Truist Securities set a target price of $49.0 on 02/11/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.