Republic Services slides as 2026 outlook and revenue come in light despite earnings beat

Republic Services (RSG) is down 4.0% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The drop appears tied to the company’s latest quarterly report, where earnings topped expectations but revenue missed and 2026 guidance looked modest versus what the market was priced for. A softer top-line and a comparatively cautious growth outlook can outweigh an EPS beat for a defensive, valuation-sensitive stock like waste services.

Details:

Republic Services reported Q4 2025 EPS of $1.76 while quarterly revenue was $4.14 billion, a mixed setup that can pressure shares when investors focus on revenue momentum.

For full-year 2026, the company guided to adjusted EPS of $7.20–$7.28 and revenue of $17.05–$17.15 billion, with those ranges viewed as slightly below prevailing expectations in early trading.

Management commentary embedded in the outlook pointed to continued price-led growth but also ongoing volume pressure, which can raise concerns about underlying demand.

This could also reflect “sell-the-news” positioning after results, where traders lock in gains even when headline earnings are solid.

Sources:

U.S. SEC

Associated Press

Investing.com

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$RSG Insider Trading Activity

$RSG insiders have traded $RSG stock on the open market 2 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 1 have been purchases and 1 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $RSG stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

GREGG BRUMMER (EVP, COO) sold 7,338 shares for an estimated $1,716,651
KATHARINE WEYMOUTH purchased 478 shares for an estimated $100,121

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.

$RSG Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 549 institutional investors add shares of $RSG stock to their portfolio, and 713 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 4,895,355 shares (-74.5%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $1,037,472,585
FMR LLC removed 2,016,557 shares (-31.3%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $427,368,925
CAPITAL WORLD INVESTORS added 1,899,183 shares (+27.7%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $402,493,853
MORGAN STANLEY added 1,490,719 shares (+38.6%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $315,928,077
TD ASSET MANAGEMENT INC removed 1,042,340 shares (-62.5%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $220,903,116
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP removed 707,375 shares (-14.2%) from their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $162,328,415
AXA S.A. removed 622,500 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $142,851,300

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$RSG Government Contracts

We have seen $48,301,306 of award payments to $RSG over the last year.

Here are some of the awards which we have have seen pay out the most over the last year:

UCGPN25017 PROVIDE LABOR, MATERIALS AND EQUIPMENT TO MITIGATE THE HARMFUL AFFECT OF OIL SPILL OR HAZARDOUS ...: $23,300,000
WASTE REMOVAL: $6,770,000
DUPONT BPA CALL: $5,330,142
UCGPN25017 PROVIDE LABOR, MATERIALS AND EQUIPMENT TO MITIGATE THE HARMFUL AFFECT OF OIL SPILL OR HAZARDOUS ...: $2,000,000
UCGPN25014 PROVIDE LABOR, MATERIALS AND EQUIPMENT TO MITIGATE THE HARMFUL AFFECT OF OIL SPILL OR HAZARDOUS ...: $1,700,000

To track government contracts to publicy traded companies, check out Quiver Quantitative's government contracts dashboard.

$RSG Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $RSG stock 3 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 3 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $RSG stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE JULIE JOHNSON has traded it 2 times. They made 0 purchases and 2 sales worth up to $30,000 on 12/18, 11/13.
REPRESENTATIVE VAL T. HOYLE sold up to $15,000 on 09/23.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.

$RSG Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $RSG in the last several months. We have seen 4 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

B of A Securities issued a "Buy" rating on 12/22/2025
Goldman Sachs issued a "Buy" rating on 11/24/2025
Wells Fargo issued a "Overweight" rating on 11/14/2025
Stifel issued a "Buy" rating on 10/31/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $RSG, check out Quiver Quantitative's $RSG forecast page.

$RSG Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $RSG recently. We have seen 11 analysts offer price targets for $RSG in the last 6 months, with a median target of $241.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Noah Kaye from Oppenheimer set a target price of $255.0 on 01/23/2026
Konark Gupta from Scotiabank set a target price of $242.0 on 01/21/2026
William Grippin from Barclays set a target price of $236.0 on 01/20/2026
Bryan Burgmeier from Citigroup set a target price of $244.0 on 01/16/2026
Connor Cerniglia from Bernstein set a target price of $220.0 on 01/05/2026
Michael Feniger from B of A Securities set a target price of $241.0 on 12/22/2025
Adam Bubes from Goldman Sachs set a target price of $255.0 on 11/24/2025

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.