Phillips 66 slides as investors weigh $900M hedge mark-to-market hit and Q1 volatility ahead of earnings

Phillips 66 (PSX) is down 4.4% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The move appears tied to investor focus on Phillips 66’s preliminary first-quarter 2026 update that flagged sizable mark-to-market losses on commodity hedges and weaker profitability in several segments. With the company also highlighting meaningful collateral cash outflows and multiple operational headwinds, traders may be reducing risk ahead of the upcoming quarterly earnings release.

Details:

Phillips 66 disclosed in an April 6, 2026 Form 8-K that first-quarter 2026 results were impacted by approximately $900 million in pre-tax mark-to-market losses tied to net short derivative positions amid a sharp rise in commodity prices.

The same filing showed estimated segment impacts from the mark-to-market losses, including Refining (about $350–$450 million), Marketing and Specialties (about $300–$400 million), and Renewable Fuels (about $100–$200 million) on a pre-tax basis.

Phillips 66 also cited additional quarter-specific pressures, including unfavorable Gulf Coast clean-products pricing timing effects, winter-storm-related downtime in Midstream, and sharply rising spot prices that hurt marketing margins.

This could also be amplified by positioning ahead of the company’s scheduled Q1 earnings date later this month, as investors reassess near-term cash flow and volatility.

Sources:

SEC, Phillips 66 Investor Relations, Investing.com

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$PSX Insider Trading Activity

$PSX insiders have traded $PSX stock on the open market 13 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 1 have been purchases and 12 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $PSX stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

BRIAN MANDELL (Executive Vice President) has made 0 purchases and 4 sales selling 94,500 shares for an estimated $14,433,940.
KEVIN J MITCHELL (Exec. VP and CFO) has made 0 purchases and 4 sales selling 67,429 shares for an estimated $10,762,013.
VANESSA ALLEN SUTHERLAND (EVP, GC and Secretary) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 8,788 shares for an estimated $1,296,230.
DON BALDRIDGE (Executive Vice President) sold 7,500 shares for an estimated $1,200,000
LISA ANN DAVIS sold 3,800 shares for an estimated $662,617
KEVIN OMAR MEYERS purchased 175 shares for an estimated $30,309

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.

$PSX Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 844 institutional investors add shares of $PSX stock to their portfolio, and 780 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 7,326,628 shares (-75.4%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $945,428,077
M&T BANK CORP added 2,243,268 shares (+462.9%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $289,471,302
BARROW HANLEY MEWHINNEY & STRAUSS LLC removed 2,131,878 shares (-67.7%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $275,097,537
BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP removed 1,410,831 shares (-16.6%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $182,053,632
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC added 1,369,287 shares (+72.3%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $176,692,794
UBS GROUP AG removed 1,348,908 shares (-30.4%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $174,063,088
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ removed 1,225,109 shares (-22.5%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $158,088,065

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$PSX Government Contracts

We have seen $443,895,728 of award payments to $PSX over the last year.

Here are some of the awards which we have have seen pay out the most over the last year:

!DISTILLATE,NAVAL: $16,735,440
8511392458!DISTILLATE,NAVAL: $13,342,896
8511348468!DISTILLATE,NAVAL: $13,070,358
8511443640!DISTILLATE,NAVAL: $12,928,608

To track government contracts to publicy traded companies, check out Quiver Quantitative's government contracts dashboard.

$PSX Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $PSX in the last several months. We have seen 3 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 1 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Freedom Capital Markets issued a "Sell" rating on 01/06/2026
UBS issued a "Buy" rating on 11/03/2025
Wells Fargo issued a "Overweight" rating on 10/30/2025
TD Cowen issued a "Buy" rating on 10/30/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $PSX, check out Quiver Quantitative's $PSX forecast page.

$PSX Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $PSX recently. We have seen 12 analysts offer price targets for $PSX in the last 6 months, with a median target of $177.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Vikram Bagri from Citigroup set a target price of $183.0 on 04/09/2026
Theresa Chen from Barclays set a target price of $177.0 on 04/08/2026
Ryan Todd from Piper Sandler set a target price of $177.0 on 04/08/2026
Manav Gupta from UBS set a target price of $212.0 on 04/02/2026
Sam Margolin from Wells Fargo set a target price of $201.0 on 03/31/2026
Justin Jenkins from Raymond James set a target price of $205.0 on 03/25/2026
Nitin Kumar from Mizuho set a target price of $170.0 on 03/17/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.