Paychex (PAYX) Falls as Fiscal 2027 Outlook Signals Slower Growth After Strong Q4

Paychex (PAYX) is down 3.3% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The drop appears tied less to the fourth-quarter results themselves and more to management’s fiscal 2027 outlook, which points to a clear slowdown from the double-digit growth posted in fiscal 2026. Investors may also be reacting to the idea that acquisition-driven comparisons get tougher from here, making future gains look more moderate.

Details:

Paychex reported fourth-quarter revenue of about $1.61 billion, up 12% year over year, while adjusted diluted earnings per share rose 11% to $1.32.

For full-year fiscal 2026, revenue increased 17% and adjusted diluted earnings per share climbed 11%, helped by the Paycor acquisition and lower acquisition-related costs.

Management guided for fiscal 2027 revenue growth of 5% to 6% and adjusted earnings per share growth of 7% to 9%, a much slower pace than the growth investors just saw in the latest quarter and full year.

Interest on funds held for clients is expected to be $195 million to $205 million in fiscal 2027, which may have added to concerns that some tailwinds are easing as the business laps prior acquisition benefits.

Sources:

Paychex Investor Relations, MarketBeat, Investing.com

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$PAYX Insider Trading Activity

$PAYX insiders have traded $PAYX stock on the open market 3 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 2 have been purchases and 1 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $PAYX stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

JOSEPH DOODY purchased 1,000 shares for an estimated $98,760
TOM BONADIO purchased 1,000 shares for an estimated $98,498
ELIZABETH ROALDSEN (Sr. Vice President) sold 459 shares for an estimated $41,310

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard. You can access data on insider stock transactions through the Quiver Quantitative API insider transaction endpoint.

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$PAYX Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 723 institutional investors add shares of $PAYX stock to their portfolio, and 903 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

VANGUARD GROUP INC added 4,583,157 shares (+12.1%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $514,138,552
FEDERATED HERMES, INC. added 3,476,347 shares (+144.3%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $320,241,085
WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN removed 2,250,689 shares (-34.7%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $207,333,470
CHARLES SCHWAB INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC removed 2,174,920 shares (-18.8%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $200,353,630
SELECT EQUITY GROUP, L.P. removed 2,046,164 shares (-35.8%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $188,492,627
BAHL & GAYNOR INC removed 1,205,622 shares (-71.2%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $111,061,898
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ removed 1,027,336 shares (-19.2%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $94,638,192

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard. You can access data on hedge funds moves and 13F filings through the Quiver Quantitative API 13F endpoint.

$PAYX Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $PAYX stock 8 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 1 have been purchases and 7 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $PAYX stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE APRIL MCCLAIN DELANEY has traded it 4 times. They made 0 purchases and 4 sales worth up to $60,000 on 04/21, 04/16, 02/24, 02/23.
REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. purchased up to $15,000 on 04/14.
REPRESENTATIVE RICK LARSEN sold up to $15,000 on 04/07.
SENATOR SHELLEY MOORE CAPITO sold up to $15,000 on 02/20.
REPRESENTATIVE RICK W. ALLEN sold up to $50,000 on 01/14.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard. You can access data on congressional stock trades through the Quiver Quantitative API Congress trades endpoint.

$PAYX Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $PAYX recently. We have seen 11 analysts offer price targets for $PAYX in the last 6 months, with a median target of $100.0.

Here are some recent targets:

David Grossman from Stifel set a target price of $110.0 on 06/17/2026
Bryan Keane from Citigroup set a target price of $140.0 on 06/15/2026
Bryan Bergin from TD Cowen set a target price of $98.0 on 06/08/2026
Kevin Mcveigh from UBS set a target price of $94.0 on 04/13/2026
Mark Marcon from Baird set a target price of $125.0 on 03/26/2026
Tien-Tsin Huang from JP Morgan set a target price of $100.0 on 03/26/2026
Jason Kupferberg from Wells Fargo set a target price of $95.0 on 03/26/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.