Occidental Petroleum jumps as Q4 results beat expectations and 2026 spending outlook surprises

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is up 6.8% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The move appears tied to a stronger-than-expected Q4 2025 earnings update paired with shareholder-friendly actions and a notably lower 2026 capital-spending outlook than many investors expected. A firmer crude-oil tape likely added a tailwind, but the company’s guidance and capital-return signals look like the main differentiators.

Details:

The company reported Q4 2025 adjusted earnings of $0.31 per share, alongside operating cash flow of about $2.6 billion and production of roughly 1,481 Mboed, above the high end of its guidance range.

The board approved a quarterly dividend increase of more than 8% to $0.26 per share, payable April 15, 2026, to shareholders of record on March 10, 2026.

The company highlighted balance-sheet progress following the January 2, 2026 close of the OxyChem sale, noting debt reduction of $5.8 billion since mid-December 2025 and principal debt of about $15.0 billion.

Management’s 2026 outlook featured capital expenditures around $5.7 billion, below prior market expectations, implying a higher free-cash-flow profile if commodity prices cooperate.

Sources:

Occidental Petroleum (Investor Relations), Barron’s

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$OXY Insider Trading Activity

$OXY insiders have traded $OXY stock on the open market 1 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 1 have been purchases and 0 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $OXY stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

WILLIAM R KLESSE purchased 5,000 shares for an estimated $194,899

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.

$OXY Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 429 institutional investors add shares of $OXY stock to their portfolio, and 716 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

PACER ADVISORS, INC. removed 6,992,961 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $287,550,556
UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 6,304,362 shares (-61.4%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $259,235,365
CITADEL ADVISORS LLC added 2,370,522 shares (+1039.8%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $97,475,864
HIGHTOWER ADVISORS, LLC removed 2,189,513 shares (-85.1%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $90,032,774
AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC removed 2,157,452 shares (-55.2%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $88,714,426
SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP added 1,955,856 shares (+134.3%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $80,424,798
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP added 1,883,721 shares (+21.6%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $77,458,607

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$OXY Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $OXY stock 2 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 1 have been purchases and 1 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $OXY stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. sold up to $15,000 on 11/12.
REPRESENTATIVE MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE purchased up to $15,000 on 10/24.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.

$OXY Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $OXY in the last several months. We have seen 2 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 2 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Susquehanna issued a "Positive" rating on 11/13/2025
Wells Fargo issued a "Underweight" rating on 11/12/2025
HSBC issued a "Buy" rating on 10/03/2025
Evercore ISI Group issued a "Underperform" rating on 10/03/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $OXY, check out Quiver Quantitative's $OXY forecast page.

$OXY Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $OXY recently. We have seen 13 analysts offer price targets for $OXY in the last 6 months, with a median target of $46.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Mark Lear from Piper Sandler set a target price of $47.0 on 01/28/2026
Biju Perincheril from Susquehanna set a target price of $51.0 on 01/26/2026
Devin McDermott from Morgan Stanley set a target price of $50.0 on 01/23/2026
Josh Silverstein from UBS set a target price of $43.0 on 12/12/2025
Jean Ann Salisbury from B of A Securities set a target price of $44.0 on 12/11/2025
Arun Jayaram from JP Morgan set a target price of $44.0 on 12/08/2025
Scott Gruber from Citigroup set a target price of $45.0 on 11/19/2025

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.