ONEOK falls 6.5% as 2026 guidance and capex outlook overshadow solid Q4 results

ONEOK (OKE) is down 6.5% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The move appears tied to investor reaction to ONEOK’s newly issued 2026 outlook, where expectations for moderating producer activity and a sizable capital spending range may have raised concerns about near-term free cash flow and returns. Even with stronger year-over-year 2025 results, the market can sell midstream names when guidance implies slower volume momentum or heavier reinvestment needs.

Details:

ONEOK reported fourth-quarter 2025 net income of $978 million ($1.55 per diluted share) and adjusted EBITDA of $2.15 billion.

For full-year 2025, net income attributable to ONEOK was $3.39 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $8.02 billion, aided by acquisition contributions and volume growth.

2026 guidance framed net income at $3.19 billion to $3.71 billion (midpoint $3.45 billion) and adjusted EBITDA at $7.9 billion to $8.3 billion.

Planned 2026 capital expenditures of roughly $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion, alongside commentary that growth could be partially offset by moderating producer activity in a lower commodity-price environment, likely influenced sentiment.

Sources:

ONEOK (Investor Relations), Zacks Investment Research, MarketScreener

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$OKE Insider Trading Activity

$OKE insiders have traded $OKE stock on the open market 1 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 1 have been purchases and 0 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $OKE stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

BRIAN L DERKSEN purchased 2,500 shares for an estimated $165,000

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.

$OKE Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 750 institutional investors add shares of $OKE stock to their portfolio, and 772 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 12,062,884 shares (-76.6%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $886,621,974
CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS added 7,979,597 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $586,500,379
FIRST EAGLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC added 3,596,089 shares (+46.3%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $264,312,541
UBS GROUP AG added 2,438,063 shares (+38.4%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $179,197,630
QUBE RESEARCH & TECHNOLOGIES LTD removed 1,817,040 shares (-91.9%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $133,552,440
DANSKE BANK A/S added 1,691,433 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $124,320,325
DEUTSCHE BANK AG\ removed 1,459,568 shares (-25.9%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $107,278,248

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$OKE Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $OKE stock 2 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 1 have been purchases and 1 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $OKE stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. has traded it 2 times. They made 1 purchase worth up to $15,000 on 11/18 and 1 sale worth up to $15,000 on 01/09.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.

$OKE Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $OKE in the last several months. We have seen 3 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Scotiabank issued a "Sector Outperform" rating on 11/04/2025
Citigroup issued a "Buy" rating on 10/31/2025
Raymond James issued a "Outperform" rating on 10/24/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $OKE, check out Quiver Quantitative's $OKE forecast page.

$OKE Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $OKE recently. We have seen 11 analysts offer price targets for $OKE in the last 6 months, with a median target of $82.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Jeremy Tonet from JP Morgan set a target price of $83.0 on 01/27/2026
Brian Reynolds from UBS set a target price of $103.0 on 01/22/2026
Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Jefferies set a target price of $80.0 on 01/20/2026
Theresa Chen from Barclays set a target price of $76.0 on 01/15/2026
Brandon Bingham from Scotiabank set a target price of $87.0 on 11/04/2025
Spiro Dounis from Citigroup set a target price of $95.0 on 10/31/2025
Michael Blum from Wells Fargo set a target price of $82.0 on 10/30/2025

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.