Murphy USA gains as analyst upgrades build on improving fuel-margin outlook

Murphy USA (MUSA) is up 5.4% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The move appears tied primarily to a wave of bullish analyst actions centered on stronger fuel margins and better earnings expectations. Recent upgrades from both Goldman Sachs and Jefferies came after signs that lower crude prices and stronger execution could lift profitability, while Murphy USA’s own recent results already showed a sharp year-over-year earnings rebound.

Details:

Goldman Sachs recently upgraded MUSA to Neutral from Sell and raised its price target to $550, pointing to falling crude prices and stronger near- to medium-term fuel margins.

Jefferies upgraded MUSA to Buy from Hold and lifted its price target to $625, with a view that 2026 through 2028 EBITDA could run well above the company’s initial guidance.

Murphy USA’s first-quarter 2026 release showed net income of $136.3 million versus $53.2 million a year earlier, with total fuel contribution improving to 35.0 cents per gallon from 25.4 cents per gallon.

The company has also continued returning capital to shareholders, including a dividend increase to $0.64 per share in May and sizable remaining buyback capacity under existing and future repurchase authorizations.

Sources:

Murphy USA Investor Relations, Investing.com, StreetInsider

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$MUSA Insider Trading Activity

$MUSA insiders have traded $MUSA stock on the open market 17 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 17 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $MUSA stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

ROBERT MADISON MURPHY has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 41,500 shares for an estimated $24,773,950.
MALYNDA K WEST (President & CEO) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 8,018 shares for an estimated $3,506,825.
RENEE M BACON (SVP, Chief Retail Officer) has made 0 purchases and 4 sales selling 5,466 shares for an estimated $2,263,569.
ROBERT J CHUMLEY (SVP Innovation) sold 5,038 shares for an estimated $2,115,960
DIANE N LANDEN sold 3,000 shares for an estimated $1,641,750
JAMES W KEYES sold 2,339 shares for an estimated $1,195,229
KEITH A. EMERY (SVP, Chief Fuels Officer) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 1,416 shares for an estimated $640,905.
JEANNE LINDER PHILLIPS sold 1,155 shares for an estimated $456,444
SCOTT G. WOODWARD (SVP, Chief Merchandising Off.) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 294 shares for an estimated $152,602.
ERIC J. BARTKO (SVP & Chief Customer Officer) sold 345 shares for an estimated $139,669

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard. You can access data on insider stock transactions through the Quiver Quantitative API insider transaction endpoint.

$MUSA Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 219 institutional investors add shares of $MUSA stock to their portfolio, and 234 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC removed 551,458 shares (-98.4%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $275,050,706
BOSTON PARTNERS added 445,607 shares (+488.1%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $222,255,403
HUNTINGTON NATIONAL BANK added 414,656 shares (+668800.0%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $206,817,973
MARSHALL WACE, LLP added 204,529 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $102,012,929
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC removed 191,500 shares (-37.7%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $95,514,455
FULLER & THALER ASSET MANAGEMENT, INC. removed 186,354 shares (-58.6%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $92,947,784
FMR LLC removed 156,661 shares (-9.7%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $78,137,806

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard. You can access data on hedge funds moves and 13F filings through the Quiver Quantitative API 13F endpoint.

$MUSA Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $MUSA in the last several months. We have seen 1 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Stephens & Co. issued a "Overweight" rating on 01/21/2026

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $MUSA, check out Quiver Quantitative's $MUSA forecast page.

$MUSA Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $MUSA recently. We have seen 9 analysts offer price targets for $MUSA in the last 6 months, with a median target of $550.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Bonnie Herzog from Goldman Sachs set a target price of $550.0 on 07/06/2026
Corey Tarlowe from Jefferies set a target price of $625.0 on 07/01/2026
Bradley B. Thomas from Keybanc set a target price of $680.0 on 06/12/2026
Edward Kelly from Wells Fargo set a target price of $520.0 on 05/01/2026
Irene Nattel from RBC Capital set a target price of $517.0 on 04/30/2026
An analyst from B of A Securities set a target price of $550.0 on 04/23/2026
Thomas Palmer from JP Morgan set a target price of $539.0 on 03/26/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.