Kalshi has reported 20,585 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will there be a recession in 2025?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.
The market currently is implying a 13% chance for "Starts", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 13% probability.
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2024 or 2025, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
In total, this market has seen a volume of 3,254,948 transactions since it was first opened on August 05, 2024. There are 583,553 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 19,477,948 contracts.
Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2025 meeting? (24h volume: 176771)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.10? (24h volume: 68331)
- Will the Fed cut rates 0 times? (24h volume: 51317)
- Will a representative of the Democratic party win the NYC Mayor race in 2025? (24h volume: 45391)
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in July 2025? (24h volume: 40412)
- Will Bruce Harrell win the election for the Mayor of Seattle in 2025? (24h volume: 27742)
- Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in July 2025? (24h volume: 26626)
- Will Thomas Massie be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? (24h volume: 25609)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.152? (24h volume: 24871)
- Will any Texas House Democrat be arrested before Sep 2025? (24h volume: 23265)
