Kalshi has reported 10,935 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will there be a recession in 2025?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.
The market currently is implying a 5% chance for "Starts", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 5% probability.
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2024 or 2025, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
In total, this market has seen a volume of 3,800,118 transactions since it was first opened on August 05, 2024. There are 508,045 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 32,280,907 contracts.
Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:
- Will the Republican party win the governorship in New Jersey (24h volume: 499186)
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2025 meeting? (24h volume: 416321)
- Will the government be shut down on October 01? (24h volume: 92891)
- Will a representative of the Andrew Cuomo party win the NYC Mayor race in 2025? (24h volume: 88267)
- Will the President sign above 0 Executive Orders between Sep 21, 2025 and Sep 27, 2025? (24h volume: 62314)
- Will the Fed cut rates 2 times? (24h volume: 60368)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.15? (24h volume: 51028)
- Government shutdown in 2025? (24h volume: 48262)
- What will Costco Wholesale Corporation say during their next earnings call? (24h volume: 45979)
- Will the S&P 500 be between 6400 and 6599.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2025? (24h volume: 43272)
