Kalshi has reported 19,794 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will there be a recession in 2025?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.
The market currently is implying a 3% chance for "Starts", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 3% probability.
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2024 or 2025, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
In total, this market has seen a volume of 4,090,707 transactions since it was first opened on August 05, 2024. There are 422,733 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 14,993,599 contracts.
Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:
- Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? (24h volume: 285504)
- House passes bill to release Epstein files this year? (24h volume: 178432)
- Donald Trump out this year? (24h volume: 93794)
- Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? (24h volume: 75325)
- Will Jeannette Jara win the 2025 Chile Presidential election first round? (24h volume: 73959)
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2025 meeting? (24h volume: 50585)
- Nicolás Maduro out in November? (24h volume: 48693)
- Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue? (24h volume: 47038)
- Will the EUR/USD open price be between 1.17000 and 1.17199 at Nov 17, 2025 at 10am EST? (24h volume: 33264)
- Will Zohran Mamdani receive between 40% and 49.99% of the popular vote in New York City? (24h volume: 27065)
