Kalshi has reported 5,130 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will there be a recession in 2025?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.
The market currently is implying a 3% chance for "Starts", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 3% probability.
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2024 or 2025, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
In total, this market has seen a volume of 4,130,634 transactions since it was first opened on August 05, 2024. There are 423,322 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 18,813,356 contracts.
Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2025 meeting? (24h volume: 115342)
- Nicolás Maduro out in November? (24h volume: 91104)
- Will the Fed cut rates 4 times? (24h volume: 62951)
- Will Republicans win the House in 2026? (24h volume: 49471)
- Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be between 3.95 and 3.97 on Nov 28, 2025? (24h volume: 45900)
- Will Kash Patel leave the Trump Administration this year? (24h volume: 35741)
- Will Democratic win the House race for TN-7? (24h volume: 35280)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.00? (24h volume: 34857)
- Will ANO win most seats in Czech Republic AND LLA wins most seats in Argentina AND PVV wins most seats in the Netherlands all win their elections? (24h volume: 27445)
- Donald Trump out this year? (24h volume: 24564)
