Kalshi has reported 9,579 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will the deficit be smaller in 2025 than 2024?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.
The market currently is implying a 27% chance for "In fiscal year 2025", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 27% probability.
If the federal deficit is smaller in fiscal year 2025 than 2024, then the market resolves to Yes.
In total, this market has seen a volume of 87,270 transactions since it was first opened on December 13, 2024. There are 37,697 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 1,989,775 contracts.
Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2025 meeting? (24h volume: 418287)
- Powell leaves before 2026? (24h volume: 143543)
- Will a representative of the Democratic party win the NYC Mayor race in 2025? (24h volume: 78980)
- Will the Fed cut rates 0 times? (24h volume: 37850)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.10? (24h volume: 35394)
- Will Trump next nominate Stephen Miran as Fed Chair? (24h volume: 24655)
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in August? (24h volume: 23941)
- Will Ro Khanna be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party? (24h volume: 18414)
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in August 2025? (24h volume: 17769)
- Will there be a recession in 2025? (24h volume: 14405)
