Kalshi has reported 11,823 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.
The market currently is implying a 16% chance for "Before 2026", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 16% probability.
If the United States agreed to, signed, or accepted "A new Iran-US nuclear deal" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments. before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
In total, this market has seen a volume of 398,481 transactions since it was first opened on June 12, 2025. There are 109,581 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 17,121,290 contracts.
Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2025 meeting? (24h volume: 1194506)
- Powell leaves before 2026? (24h volume: 69740)
- Will a representative of the Democratic party win the NYC Mayor race in 2025? (24h volume: 54043)
- Will the Fed cut rates 0 times? (24h volume: 50306)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.15? (24h volume: 48656)
- Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in August 2025? (24h volume: 34010)
- Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2026? (24h volume: 27126)
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in August? (24h volume: 22907)
- Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin before 2026? (24h volume: 22724)
- Will Trump next nominate Marc Sumerlin as Fed Chair? (24h volume: 22416)
