Kalshi has reported 71,376 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.
The market currently is implying a 12% chance for "Before 2026", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 12% probability.
If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
In total, this market has seen a volume of 73,371 transactions since it was first opened on November 09, 2025. There are 60,862 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 6,413,729 contracts.
Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:
- Will the federal government shut down for more than 42 days? (24h volume: 2555258)
- Will the federal government shut down for fewer than 92 days? (24h volume: 624593)
- Will Abigail Spanberger win by 14 to 100 percentage points in Virginia? (24h volume: 127110)
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their December 2025 meeting? (24h volume: 121989)
- Will Adelita Grijalva be first member of Congress serving Arizona's 7th congressional district sworn in after Issuance on Nov 15, 2025? (24h volume: 91997)
- Will government spending decrease by 1 before 2025? (24h volume: 88189)
- Donald Trump out this year? (24h volume: 72771)
- Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue? (24h volume: 71376)
- Will the Department of Education be eliminated before Jan 1, 2026? (24h volume: 66105)
- Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2026? (24h volume: 56425)
