Kalshi has reported 28,150 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2026?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.
The market currently is implying a 14% chance for "Japan", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 14% probability.
If a new free trade deal with Japan has become law before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
In total, this market has seen a volume of 134,590 transactions since it was first opened on May 08, 2025. There are 76,573 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 5,344,268 contracts.
Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:
- Will a representative of the Democratic party win the NYC Mayor race in 2025? (24h volume: 1006583)
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2025 meeting? (24h volume: 668109)
- Donald Trump out this year? (24h volume: 399837)
- Will the U.S. control at least part of Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal before 2026? (24h volume: 193573)
- Will Jack Ciattarelli win the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election? (24h volume: 163320)
- Will Curtis Sliwa drop out of the NYC Mayoral race? (24h volume: 101754)
- Will the federal government shut down for more than 40 days? (24h volume: 97366)
- Will Trump buy Greenland? (24h volume: 74243)
- Will Mikie Sherrill finish within 100 to -0.01 percentage points in New Jersey? (24h volume: 69706)
- Will the Department of Education be eliminated before Jan 1, 2026? (24h volume: 69244)
