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Markets bet on whether House passes bill to extend Obamacare subsidies this year

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Kalshi has reported 16,482 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “House passes bill to extend Obamacare subsidies this year?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 38% chance for "In 2025", which is down from yesterday, when the market implied a 40% probability.

If a bill that extends enhanced premium ACA tax credits has passed the House before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 103,576 transactions since it was first opened on September 08, 2025. There are 31,601 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 8,346,892 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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