Marathon Petroleum jumps 5% as big gasoline draw tightens supplies and boosts refining-margin outlook

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is up 5.0% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The move appears tied to a bullish shift in near-term U.S. fuel fundamentals after new government inventory data showed a sharp draw in gasoline and distillates, which can improve expected refining margins. With investors already focused on MPC’s cash-return profile heading into its early-May earnings, the inventory surprise may have amplified buying interest.

Details:

Weekly U.S. data showed commercial crude inventories fell by 6.2 million barrels, while total motor gasoline inventories dropped by 6.1 million barrels and distillate inventories fell by 4.5 million barrels for the week ending April 24, 2026.

Refinery utilization was reported around 89.6% of operable capacity, with gasoline production near 9.8 million barrels per day and distillate production near 4.9 million barrels per day, supporting the idea that demand is running ahead of supply.

Spot fuel prices jumped week over week in the same report window, a setup that often translates into stronger crack spreads and a better margin backdrop for large refiners like MPC.

MPC’s next earnings report is scheduled for May 5, 2026, keeping attention on near-term profitability and capital returns.

Sources:

U.S. Energy Information Administration, Marathon Petroleum Investor Relations, MarketBeat

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$MPC Insider Trading Activity

$MPC insiders have traded $MPC stock on the open market 6 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 6 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $MPC stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

MICHAEL A II HENSCHEN (Ex VP, Refining) sold 5,289 shares for an estimated $1,070,070
RICKY D. HESSLING (Chief Commercial Officer) has made 0 purchases and 5 sales selling 4,473 shares for an estimated $1,015,422.

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard. You can access data on insider stock transactions through the Quiver Quantitative API.

$MPC Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 786 institutional investors add shares of $MPC stock to their portfolio, and 752 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 4,399,824 shares (-77.3%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $715,543,377
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP removed 2,164,683 shares (-23.1%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $352,042,396
CAPITAL WEALTH PLANNING, LLC added 1,495,097 shares (+49392.0%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $243,147,625
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC removed 1,339,626 shares (-90.3%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $217,863,376
QUBE RESEARCH & TECHNOLOGIES LTD added 1,110,161 shares (+237.6%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $180,545,483
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ removed 1,109,013 shares (-35.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $180,358,784
ALYESKA INVESTMENT GROUP, L.P. removed 785,433 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $127,734,968

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard. You can access data on hedge funds moves and 13F filings through the Quiver Quantitative API.

$MPC Government Contracts

We have seen $362,251,333 of award payments to $MPC over the last year.

Here are some of the awards which we have have seen pay out the most over the last year:

8511470123!DISTILLATE,NAVAL: $14,530,587
8511695173!DISTILLATE,NAVAL: $14,326,557
8511665280!TURBINE FUEL,AVIATION: $11,084,018
8511665225!TURBINE FUEL,AVIATION: $10,988,880
8511669868!DISTILLATE,NAVAL: $10,601,220

To track government contracts to publicy traded companies, check out Quiver Quantitative's government contracts dashboard.

$MPC Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $MPC stock 3 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 3 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $MPC stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE DAVID TAYLOR has traded it 3 times. They made 0 purchases and 3 sales worth up to $45,000 on 03/11, 02/26.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard. You can access data on congressional stock trades through the Quiver Quantitative API.

$MPC Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $MPC in the last several months. We have seen 2 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Barclays issued a "Overweight" rating on 11/17/2025
Wells Fargo issued a "Overweight" rating on 11/05/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $MPC, check out Quiver Quantitative's $MPC forecast page.

$MPC Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $MPC recently. We have seen 11 analysts offer price targets for $MPC in the last 6 months, with a median target of $230.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Joe Laetsch from Morgan Stanley set a target price of $233.0 on 04/24/2026
Betty Zhang from Scotiabank set a target price of $210.0 on 04/22/2026
Theresa Chen from Barclays set a target price of $230.0 on 04/10/2026
Ryan Todd from Piper Sandler set a target price of $228.0 on 04/09/2026
Manav Gupta from UBS set a target price of $280.0 on 04/02/2026
Sam Margolin from Wells Fargo set a target price of $331.0 on 03/31/2026
Justin Jenkins from Raymond James set a target price of $270.0 on 03/25/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.