Marathon Petroleum (MPC) slides 4.9% as refining stocks pull back amid shifting fuel-price and operations outlook

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is down 4.9% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The move appears largely sector-driven, with investors reassessing near-term refining margins as fuel futures and broader energy sentiment react to rapidly changing geopolitics. Company-specific operational and maintenance headlines may also be contributing to caution into the next earnings window.

Details:

A scheduled maintenance campaign at Marathon’s Robinson, Illinois refinery began in mid-March, with some units expected to remain offline until mid-May, which can weigh on near-term throughput and profitability assumptions.

Recent headlines flagged an upset at the Galveston Bay, Texas refinery’s fluid catalytic cracking unit (FCCU) and a return to normal operations, highlighting ongoing operational volatility that can influence margin capture.

Marathon disclosed a new $5.0 billion unsecured revolving credit facility maturing April 7, 2031, replacing its prior 2022 facility; the company said there were no borrowings outstanding at termination or under the new agreement at the time of filing.

Fuel-price momentum has also been choppy, with gasoline futures recently declining amid increased expectations around potential de-escalation, which can pressure refiners if product cracks narrow.

Sources:

SEC, Reuters, Trading Economics

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$MPC Insider Trading Activity

$MPC insiders have traded $MPC stock on the open market 6 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 6 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $MPC stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

MICHAEL A II HENSCHEN (Ex VP, Refining) sold 5,289 shares for an estimated $1,070,070
RICKY D. HESSLING (Chief Commercial Officer) has made 0 purchases and 5 sales selling 4,473 shares for an estimated $1,015,422.

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.

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$MPC Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 704 institutional investors add shares of $MPC stock to their portfolio, and 739 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 4,399,824 shares (-77.3%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $715,543,377
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP removed 2,164,683 shares (-23.1%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $352,042,396
CAPITAL WEALTH PLANNING, LLC added 1,495,097 shares (+49392.0%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $243,147,625
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC removed 1,339,626 shares (-90.3%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $217,863,376
QUBE RESEARCH & TECHNOLOGIES LTD added 1,110,161 shares (+237.6%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $180,545,483
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ removed 1,109,013 shares (-35.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $180,358,784
ALYESKA INVESTMENT GROUP, L.P. removed 785,433 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $127,734,968

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$MPC Government Contracts

We have seen $386,844,788 of award payments to $MPC over the last year.

Here are some of the awards which we have have seen pay out the most over the last year:

8511343326!DISTILLATE,NAVAL: $21,817,614
8511470123!DISTILLATE,NAVAL: $14,530,587
8511695173!DISTILLATE,NAVAL: $14,326,557
8511665280!TURBINE FUEL,AVIATION: $11,084,018
8511665225!TURBINE FUEL,AVIATION: $10,988,880

To track government contracts to publicy traded companies, check out Quiver Quantitative's government contracts dashboard.

$MPC Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $MPC stock 3 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 3 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $MPC stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE DAVID TAYLOR has traded it 3 times. They made 0 purchases and 3 sales worth up to $45,000 on 03/11, 02/26.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.

$MPC Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $MPC in the last several months. We have seen 2 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Barclays issued a "Overweight" rating on 11/17/2025
Wells Fargo issued a "Overweight" rating on 11/05/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $MPC, check out Quiver Quantitative's $MPC forecast page.

$MPC Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $MPC recently. We have seen 9 analysts offer price targets for $MPC in the last 6 months, with a median target of $230.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Theresa Chen from Barclays set a target price of $230.0 on 04/10/2026
Ryan Todd from Piper Sandler set a target price of $228.0 on 04/09/2026
Manav Gupta from UBS set a target price of $280.0 on 04/02/2026
Sam Margolin from Wells Fargo set a target price of $331.0 on 03/31/2026
Justin Jenkins from Raymond James set a target price of $270.0 on 03/25/2026
Nitin Kumar from Mizuho set a target price of $224.0 on 03/17/2026
Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs set a target price of $239.0 on 03/12/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.