Lowe’s stock slides as FY2026 outlook disappoints despite Q4 beat

Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW) is down 4.7% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The drop appears tied to Lowe’s cautious full-year 2026 outlook, which weighed more heavily than its better-than-expected quarterly results. Investors seemed to focus on guidance that implies only modest demand improvement amid a still-challenging housing backdrop.

Details:

Lowe’s reported fiscal Q4 2025 results with comparable sales up 1.3% and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.98, reflecting stronger performance in Pro, online, and home services, plus a solid holiday period.

For full-year 2026, management guided to sales of about $92–$94 billion, comparable sales flat to up 2%, and adjusted diluted EPS of roughly $12.25–$12.75, a range that the market interpreted as conservative versus expectations.

Management highlighted ongoing uncertainty in the home-improvement category, with high mortgage rates and a sluggish housing market limiting big-ticket project demand and turnover-driven spending.

Reported profitability was pressured by acquisition-related costs, including expenses tied to Foundation Building Materials and Artisan Design Group, contributing to a GAAP EPS that lagged the adjusted figure.

Sources:

Lowe’s Corporate, Barron’s, MarketWatch

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$LOW Insider Trading Activity

$LOW insiders have traded $LOW stock on the open market 7 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 1 have been purchases and 6 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $LOW stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

JOSEPH MICHAEL MCFARLAND (EVP, Stores) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 43,810 shares for an estimated $11,942,439.
MARVIN R ELLISON (Chairman, President & CEO) has made 0 purchases and 3 sales selling 18,000 shares for an estimated $4,701,100.
BRANDON J SINK (EVP, Chief Financial Officer) sold 8,192 shares for an estimated $2,200,199
LAWRENCE SIMKINS purchased 1,000 shares for an estimated $231,062

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.

$LOW Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 1,116 institutional investors add shares of $LOW stock to their portfolio, and 1,330 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 13,444,379 shares (-72.8%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $3,242,246,439
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ added 2,039,343 shares (+45.2%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $491,807,957
FMR LLC added 1,747,325 shares (+6.8%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $421,384,897
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO removed 1,540,730 shares (-4.1%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $371,562,446
J. STERN & CO. LLP added 1,471,539 shares (+7814.9%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $354,876,345
TABLEAUX LLC removed 1,275,000 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $320,420,250
WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN removed 1,194,261 shares (-11.7%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $288,007,982

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$LOW Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $LOW stock 5 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 5 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $LOW stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

SENATOR JOHN W. HICKENLOOPER sold up to $100,000 on 01/14.
SENATOR SHELLEY MOORE CAPITO has traded it 3 times. They made 0 purchases and 3 sales worth up to $45,000 on 11/13, 10/21, 10/20.
REPRESENTATIVE VAL T. HOYLE sold up to $15,000 on 09/23.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.

$LOW Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $LOW in the last several months. We have seen 9 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Telsey Advisory Group issued a "Outperform" rating on 02/18/2026
Morgan Stanley issued a "Overweight" rating on 01/15/2026
Oppenheimer issued a "Outperform" rating on 12/05/2025
B of A Securities issued a "Buy" rating on 11/20/2025
JP Morgan issued a "Overweight" rating on 11/20/2025
UBS issued a "Buy" rating on 11/20/2025
Baird issued a "Outperform" rating on 11/20/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $LOW, check out Quiver Quantitative's $LOW forecast page.

$LOW Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $LOW recently. We have seen 19 analysts offer price targets for $LOW in the last 6 months, with a median target of $285.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Steven Shemesh from RBC Capital set a target price of $257.0 on 02/23/2026
Joseph Feldman from Telsey Advisory Group set a target price of $285.0 on 02/18/2026
Zhihan Ma from Bernstein set a target price of $313.0 on 02/18/2026
Steven Zaccone from Citigroup set a target price of $285.0 on 02/12/2026
Max Rakhlenko from TD Cowen set a target price of $295.0 on 01/20/2026
Simeon Gutman from Morgan Stanley set a target price of $296.0 on 01/15/2026
Chuck Grom from Gordon Haskett set a target price of $325.0 on 01/13/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.