International Paper (IP) slides 5.6% as investors price in pre-earnings downside risk and cost/pricing headwinds

International Paper (IP) is down 5.6% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The drop appears tied to more cautious expectations heading into International Paper’s next earnings report, with investors focusing on higher cost headwinds and less favorable pricing assumptions in containerboard/linerboard. The move also reflects lingering skepticism that near-term results will track the company’s own profit targets.

Details:

A major bank placed IP on a negative catalyst watch ahead of the company’s April 30 earnings report and modeled EBITDA below both consensus estimates and the company’s prior quarterly target range.

That view highlighted potential cost headwinds in Europe, including energy-related pressure and an operating strategy that can be disadvantaged when externally sourced paper prices rise.

Industry pricing data and recent commentary suggested containerboard/linerboard price realization in 2026 may be more modest and/or delayed versus earlier expectations, which can weigh on margin outlooks for packaging producers.

In its January 29, 2026 update, International Paper outlined 2026 adjusted EBITDA targets and announced a plan to separate into two publicly traded regional packaging companies, underscoring that a multi-step transformation is still in progress.

Sources:

International Paper (press release), Investing.com, Packaging Dive

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$IP Insider Trading Activity

$IP insiders have traded $IP stock on the open market 5 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 4 have been purchases and 1 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $IP stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

ANDREW K SILVERNAIL (Chief Executive Officer) purchased 50,000 shares for an estimated $1,998,965
CHRISTOPHER M CONNOR purchased 25,000 shares for an estimated $1,009,249
ANDERS GUSTAFSSON has made 2 purchases buying 26,092 shares for an estimated $1,000,036 and 0 sales.
CLAY R ELLIS (Senior Vice President) sold 18,819 shares for an estimated $693,480

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.

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$IP Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 337 institutional investors add shares of $IP stock to their portfolio, and 472 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS added 14,422,616 shares (+29.4%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $568,106,844
UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 8,986,706 shares (-76.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $353,986,349
BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP removed 8,688,069 shares (-51.5%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $342,223,037
FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC added 6,663,986 shares (+81.6%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $262,494,408
FMR LLC removed 3,888,794 shares (-55.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $153,179,595
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIATES INC /MD/ removed 3,247,346 shares (-4.9%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $127,912,958
T. ROWE PRICE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, INC. removed 2,904,182 shares (-72.1%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $114,395,728

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$IP Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $IP stock 2 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 1 have been purchases and 1 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $IP stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. purchased up to $15,000 on 11/18.
REPRESENTATIVE JULIE JOHNSON sold up to $15,000 on 11/03.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.

$IP Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $IP in the last several months. We have seen 4 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Citigroup issued a "Buy" rating on 02/02/2026
Truist Securities issued a "Buy" rating on 01/06/2026
Argus Research issued a "Buy" rating on 12/22/2025
RBC Capital issued a "Outperform" rating on 10/31/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $IP, check out Quiver Quantitative's $IP forecast page.

$IP Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $IP recently. We have seen 8 analysts offer price targets for $IP in the last 6 months, with a median target of $44.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Michael Roxland from Truist Securities set a target price of $44.0 on 04/15/2026
Anthony Pettinari from Citigroup set a target price of $44.0 on 04/14/2026
Anojja Shah from UBS set a target price of $40.0 on 04/10/2026
Hillary Cacanando from Deutsche Bank set a target price of $38.0 on 04/01/2026
Gabe Hajde from Wells Fargo set a target price of $38.0 on 03/20/2026
Matthew McKellar from RBC Capital set a target price of $54.0 on 01/30/2026
Alexandra Yates from Argus Research set a target price of $50.0 on 12/22/2025

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.