A potential U.S. government shutdown due to funding lapses might result in the suspension of the release of pivotal economic data, affecting reports such as employment and inflation metrics. Entities such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under the Labor Department, along with the Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis from the Commerce Department, would be impacted. As Congress remains at an impasse regarding spending bills for the fiscal year starting on Oct. 1, this would hinder the Federal Reserve, investors, businesses, and the general public from accessing essential data for critical decision-making.
The suspension includes reports like the September jobs report and the Consumer Price Index, scheduled for release in early October. This contrasts with the approach taken during the 2018-2019 government shutdown when entities like the Labor Department remained functional and continued data publications. Unfortunately, this time, the unemployment insurance weekly claims data, alongside other services from the Census Bureau, including data from the Economic Census and the American Community Survey, would be halted.
Further ramifications include potential delays in the unveiling of September reports for metrics like retail sales, housing starts, new home sales, and possibly even the initial estimate for the third-quarter GDP slated for late October. Other reports related to durable goods orders, advance economic indicators, consumer spending, income, and key inflation data that the Federal Reserve closely monitors could also be affected.
While this data blackout poses challenges, especially for the Federal Reserve at a time of inflation concerns, there is some respite. The Federal Reserve, as a self-funded agency, will continue its regular release of data, policy statements, and other related reports. This includes the publication of the minutes from its mid-September policy meeting, scheduled for release in early October.
