FedEx slides as tariff-refund uncertainty and pre-earnings positioning weigh on sentiment

FedEx Corporation (FDX) is down 4.8% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The selloff appears tied to renewed U.S. trade-policy and tariff-refund uncertainty that can ripple through global shipping volumes and pricing, hitting sentiment across transport names. With FedEx also approaching a major corporate event (its Freight separation) and the next earnings update, the move could reflect de-risking after a strong run rather than a single company-specific headline.

Details:

U.S. court actions this week pushed the government toward beginning refunds tied to tariffs that were struck down, while subsequent filings highlighted operational and timing uncertainty around how refunds would be processed.

FedEx previously indicated it would return any tariff refunds it might receive to shippers and customers who paid the duties, limiting the idea of a direct financial “windfall” for FedEx itself.

FedEx reaffirmed that the planned spin-off of FedEx Freight remains on track for June 1, 2026, with additional milestones (including a Freight Investor Day) still ahead.

As part of the separation planning, FedEx disclosed financing steps connected to the Freight spin-off, which investors may be reassessing as market conditions shift.

Sources:

FedEx Investor Relations, Associated Press, Axios, U.S. SEC (EDGAR)

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$FDX Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 822 institutional investors add shares of $FDX stock to their portfolio, and 871 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 4,071,468 shares (-75.3%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $1,176,084,246
FMR LLC added 2,053,626 shares (+69.5%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $593,210,406
PRIMECAP MANAGEMENT CO/CA/ removed 929,579 shares (-9.8%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $268,518,189
BALYASNY ASSET MANAGEMENT L.P. added 745,703 shares (+27008.4%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $215,403,768
WADDELL & ASSOCIATES, LLC added 738,122 shares (+164.0%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $213,213,920
CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS removed 685,766 shares (-15.9%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $198,090,366
DODGE & COX removed 642,992 shares (-4.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $185,734,669

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$FDX Government Contracts

We have seen $871,771,352 of award payments to $FDX over the last year.

Here are some of the awards which we have have seen pay out the most over the last year:

MAIL MANIFESTING SERVICES: $66,569,560
MAIL MANIFESTING SERVICES: $50,000,000
CONSOLIDATED TRANSPORTATION SHIPMENTS MADE BY DECENTRALIZED ORDERING OFFICERS.: $44,848,694
CONSOLIDATED TRANSPORTATION SHIPMENTS MADE BY DECENTRALIZED ORDERING OFFICERS.: $39,315,739
MAIL MANIFESTING SERVICES: $38,400,000

To track government contracts to publicy traded companies, check out Quiver Quantitative's government contracts dashboard.

$FDX Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $FDX stock 2 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 1 have been purchases and 1 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $FDX stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. purchased up to $15,000 on 01/09.
REPRESENTATIVE VAL T. HOYLE sold up to $15,000 on 09/23.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.

$FDX Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $FDX in the last several months. We have seen 5 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 1 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Jefferies issued a "Buy" rating on 12/19/2025
Stifel issued a "Buy" rating on 12/19/2025
Citigroup issued a "Buy" rating on 12/19/2025
Stephens & Co. issued a "Overweight" rating on 12/19/2025
Truist Securities issued a "Buy" rating on 12/19/2025
Morgan Stanley issued a "Underweight" rating on 12/19/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $FDX, check out Quiver Quantitative's $FDX forecast page.

$FDX Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $FDX recently. We have seen 18 analysts offer price targets for $FDX in the last 6 months, with a median target of $337.5.

Here are some recent targets:

Jonathan Chappell from Evercore ISI Group set a target price of $380.0 on 02/24/2026
Christian Wetherbee from Wells Fargo set a target price of $430.0 on 02/13/2026
Fadi Chamoun from BMO Capital set a target price of $400.0 on 02/13/2026
Jason H. Seidl from TD Cowen set a target price of $383.0 on 02/13/2026
Reed Seay from Stephens & Co. set a target price of $405.0 on 02/13/2026
Brandon Oglenski from Barclays set a target price of $450.0 on 02/10/2026
Ariel Rosa from Citigroup set a target price of $401.0 on 02/05/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.