Fair Isaac Falls as Investors Reassess Mortgage-Score Competition

Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) is down 5.4% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The most likely driver appears to be renewed concern over competition and pricing pressure in mortgage credit scoring rather than a fresh company-specific earnings issue. The immediate catalyst is somewhat unclear, but this could be because investors are rotating out after a recent rally while refocusing on the risk that a more competitive mortgage-score market could weaken FICO’s pricing power.

Details:

Federal housing regulators said in April that Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the FHA are moving ahead with both VantageScore 4.0 and FICO 10T in mortgage underwriting, ending the older one-model structure and increasing competitive pressure.

FICO highlighted on July 1 that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac released historical FICO Score 10T loan-level data, which supported a rebound in the shares earlier this month; today’s drop may reflect some giveback after that move.

FICO’s latest quarterly results were strong, with revenue growth and higher full-year guidance, so today’s decline does not appear tied to a recent fundamental miss.

Recent SEC filings also showed routine insider-related share transactions in early July, which may have added to caution even though the filings do not point to a major operational change.

Sources:

FHFA, FICO, SEC

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$FICO Insider Trading Activity

$FICO insiders have traded $FICO stock on the open market 2 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 2 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $FICO stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

EVA MANOLIS sold 520 shares for an estimated $638,367
JOANNA REES sold 358 shares for an estimated $486,880

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard. You can access data on insider stock transactions through the Quiver Quantitative API insider transaction endpoint.

$FICO Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 305 institutional investors add shares of $FICO stock to their portfolio, and 553 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT CO removed 3,327,351 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $3,552,080,286
CAPITAL RESEARCH GLOBAL INVESTORS added 813,880 shares (+266.3%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $868,849,455
CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS added 328,370 shares (+86.2%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $350,548,109
CAPITAL WORLD INVESTORS removed 161,928 shares (-18.1%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $172,864,617
LINONIA PARTNERSHIP LP removed 122,956 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $131,260,448
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES CORP added 114,768 shares (+3825600.0%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $122,519,430
MORGAN STANLEY added 104,861 shares (+21.0%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $111,943,311

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard. You can access data on hedge funds moves and 13F filings through the Quiver Quantitative API 13F endpoint.

$FICO Government Contracts

We have seen $2,450,000 of award payments to $FICO over the last year.

Here are some of the awards which we have have seen pay out the most over the last year:

THE PURPOSE OF THIS CONTRACT IS TO PROVIDE BLADEWORKS SOFTWARE LICENSE MAINTENACE AND SUPPORT WITH A 12-MON...: $2,450,000

To track government contracts to publicy traded companies, check out Quiver Quantitative's government contracts dashboard. You can access data on government contracts through the Quiver Quantitative API government contracts endpoint.

$FICO Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $FICO stock 4 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 1 have been purchases and 3 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $FICO stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. has traded it 3 times. They made 1 purchase worth up to $15,000 on 03/13 and 2 sales worth up to $30,000 on 04/14, 02/10.
REPRESENTATIVE JOSH GOTTHEIMER sold up to $15,000 on 02/04.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard. You can access data on congressional stock trades through the Quiver Quantitative API Congress trades endpoint.

$FICO Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $FICO in the last several months. We have seen 1 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Needham issued a "Buy" rating on 01/29/2026

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $FICO, check out Quiver Quantitative's $FICO forecast page.

$FICO Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $FICO recently. We have seen 10 analysts offer price targets for $FICO in the last 6 months, with a median target of $1472.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Kevin Mcveigh from UBS set a target price of $1270.0 on 07/02/2026
Kyle Peterson from Needham set a target price of $1650.0 on 06/09/2026
Curtis Nagle from B of A Securities set a target price of $1400.0 on 05/19/2026
Surinder Thind from Jefferies set a target price of $1700.0 on 05/04/2026
Jason Haas from Wells Fargo set a target price of $1400.0 on 04/30/2026
Alexander Hess from JP Morgan set a target price of $1225.0 on 04/30/2026
Sean Kennedy from Mizuho set a target price of $1416.0 on 04/16/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.