Eli Lilly rises as rival obesity-drug trial data strengthen tirzepatide’s edge

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is up 3.7% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The move appears tied to fresh clinical data showing a key rival’s next-generation obesity drug underperformed Lilly’s tirzepatide in a head-to-head study, reinforcing investor confidence in Lilly’s competitive position in the fast-growing weight-loss market.

Details:

A late-stage study comparing a next-generation obesity injection from a major competitor versus Lilly’s tirzepatide showed lower average weight loss for the competitor’s drug over 84 weeks.

In the trial readout, the competitor’s regimen was associated with about 23% average weight loss, versus about 25.5% for tirzepatide, supporting the view that Lilly’s product profile remains best-in-class on efficacy.

The study enrolled roughly 800 participants with obesity, making it a closely watched direct comparison for investors tracking market-share dynamics in GLP-1-based therapies.

As the competing stock sold off sharply on the news, Lilly shares benefited from expectations that demand for its obesity brands could stay stronger for longer.

Sources:

Financial Times, Barron’s, Investor’s Business Daily

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$LLY Insider Trading Activity

$LLY insiders have traded $LLY stock on the open market 319 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 319 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $LLY stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

ENDOWMENT INC LILLY has made 0 purchases and 317 sales selling 3,411,128 shares for an estimated $3,177,659,884.
DONALD A ZAKROWSKI (SVP, Finance, & CAO) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 2,000 shares for an estimated $1,745,430.

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.

$LLY Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 2,083 institutional investors add shares of $LLY stock to their portfolio, and 1,854 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 19,232,498 shares (-74.7%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $20,668,780,950
J. STERN & CO. LLP added 4,038,502 shares (+46191.3%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $4,340,097,329
LILLY ENDOWMENT INC removed 3,302,477 shares (-3.5%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $3,549,105,982
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO added 2,729,791 shares (+26.6%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $2,933,651,791
CARDANO RISK MANAGEMENT B.V. added 2,131,734 shares (+876.1%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $2,290,931,895
FMR LLC added 1,549,858 shares (+6.4%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $1,665,601,395
PRIMECAP MANAGEMENT CO/CA/ removed 1,529,556 shares (-14.2%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $1,643,783,242

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$LLY Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $LLY stock 11 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 4 have been purchases and 7 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $LLY stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE DAVID TAYLOR has traded it 3 times. They made 0 purchases and 3 sales worth up to $45,000 on 02/09, 01/16, 12/10.
SENATOR ANGUS S. KING JR. purchased up to $15,000 on 12/29.
SENATOR MARKWAYNE MULLIN purchased up to $50,000 on 12/29.
REPRESENTATIVE JULIE JOHNSON has traded it 2 times. They made 0 purchases and 2 sales worth up to $30,000 on 12/18, 11/13.
SENATOR JOHN BOOZMAN sold up to $15,000 on 11/21.
REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. purchased up to $15,000 on 11/18.
SENATOR SHELLEY MOORE CAPITO purchased up to $15,000 on 10/24.
REPRESENTATIVE VAL T. HOYLE sold up to $15,000 on 09/23.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.

$LLY Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $LLY in the last several months. We have seen 11 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Guggenheim issued a "Buy" rating on 01/20/2026
B of A Securities issued a "Buy" rating on 12/15/2025
Wells Fargo issued a "Overweight" rating on 12/10/2025
BMO Capital issued a "Outperform" rating on 12/04/2025
Morgan Stanley issued a "Overweight" rating on 11/24/2025
Bernstein issued a "Outperform" rating on 11/24/2025
Truist Securities issued a "Buy" rating on 11/19/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $LLY, check out Quiver Quantitative's $LLY forecast page.

$LLY Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $LLY recently. We have seen 17 analysts offer price targets for $LLY in the last 6 months, with a median target of $1250.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Emily Field from Barclays set a target price of $1350.0 on 02/20/2026
James Shin from Deutsche Bank set a target price of $1285.0 on 02/09/2026
Mohit Bansal from Wells Fargo set a target price of $1280.0 on 02/05/2026
Carter Gould from Cantor Fitzgerald set a target price of $1205.0 on 02/05/2026
Terence Flynn from Morgan Stanley set a target price of $1313.0 on 02/05/2026
Chris Schott from JP Morgan set a target price of $1300.0 on 02/05/2026
Seamus Fernandez from Guggenheim set a target price of $1161.0 on 01/20/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.