ConocoPhillips slides as oil prices retreat on easing Middle East risk premium

ConocoPhillips (COP) is down 3.4% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The most likely driver is a pullback in crude prices, which tends to pressure upstream producers as investors quickly re-price near-term cash flow expectations. The move also looks consistent with sector-wide volatility tied to shifting headlines around U.S.-Iran diplomacy and supply-risk expectations.

Details:

Crude benchmarks moved lower in the latest session, reducing the geopolitical “risk premium” that had supported energy equities during prior weeks of heightened Middle East uncertainty.

Brent crude fell about 3.5% to roughly $95.91 per barrel in Tuesday trading as markets weighed improved odds of additional U.S.-Iran talks.

Because ConocoPhillips is primarily an upstream producer, its shares often react more directly to day-to-day changes in oil prices than the broader equity market.

This decline may also reflect some profit-taking and positioning ahead of the next earnings update, with investors particularly focused on capital returns and spending plans under a lower commodity price deck.

Sources:

Associated Press, ConocoPhillips Investor Relations, CME Group

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$COP Insider Trading Activity

$COP insiders have traded $COP stock on the open market 13 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 1 have been purchases and 12 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $COP stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

RYAN MICHAEL LANCE (Chairman and CEO) has made 0 purchases and 3 sales selling 1,120,729 shares for an estimated $125,834,473.
TIMOTHY A LEACH sold 40,000 shares for an estimated $4,751,684
ANDREW D LUNDQUIST (Senior Vice President) sold 34,500 shares for an estimated $4,128,960
NICHOLAS G OLDS (Executive Vice President) has made 0 purchases and 3 sales selling 33,666 shares for an estimated $4,035,861.
KELLY BRUNETTI ROSE (SVP & General Counsel) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 16,200 shares for an estimated $2,004,556.
WELSH KONTESSA S HAYNES (VP & Controller) sold 10,339 shares for an estimated $1,241,405
WILLIAM H. MCRAVEN purchased 5,768 shares for an estimated $500,000
HEATHER G. HRAP (Senior Vice President) sold 2,654 shares for an estimated $317,630

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.

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$COP Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 914 institutional investors add shares of $COP stock to their portfolio, and 1,117 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 15,179,909 shares (-74.3%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $1,420,991,281
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO removed 7,726,100 shares (-24.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $723,240,221
HARRIS ASSOCIATES L P added 5,138,469 shares (+27.2%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $481,012,083
PACER ADVISORS, INC. removed 4,726,772 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $442,473,126
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP removed 4,269,743 shares (-15.1%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $399,690,642
CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS added 2,714,663 shares (+5.9%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $254,119,603
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC added 2,503,156 shares (+229.2%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $234,320,433

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$COP Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $COP stock 9 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 3 have been purchases and 6 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $COP stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. has traded it 3 times. They made 1 purchase worth up to $15,000 on 02/10 and 2 sales worth up to $65,000 on 01/09, 01/07.
SENATOR MARKWAYNE MULLIN purchased up to $50,000 on 12/29.
REPRESENTATIVE JULIE JOHNSON has traded it 2 times. They made 0 purchases and 2 sales worth up to $30,000 on 12/18, 11/13.
REPRESENTATIVE LISA C. MCCLAIN has traded it 3 times. They made 1 purchase worth up to $15,000 on 10/30 and 2 sales worth up to $30,000 on 10/31, 10/30.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.

$COP Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $COP in the last several months. We have seen 2 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Mizuho issued a "Outperform" rating on 12/12/2025
UBS issued a "Buy" rating on 11/12/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $COP, check out Quiver Quantitative's $COP forecast page.

$COP Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $COP recently. We have seen 15 analysts offer price targets for $COP in the last 6 months, with a median target of $124.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Sam Margolin from Wells Fargo set a target price of $183.0 on 04/09/2026
Ryan Todd from Piper Sandler set a target price of $157.0 on 04/08/2026
Alastair Syme from Citigroup set a target price of $150.0 on 04/02/2026
Devin McDermott from Morgan Stanley set a target price of $149.0 on 03/27/2026
Gabe Daoud from Truist Securities set a target price of $124.0 on 03/24/2026
Nitin Kumar from Mizuho set a target price of $136.0 on 03/17/2026
Betty Jiang from Barclays set a target price of $128.0 on 03/16/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.