ConocoPhillips jumps as crude sentiment improves amid ongoing Hormuz-related supply constraints

ConocoPhillips (COP) is up 3.1% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: COP appeared to rise mainly on a macro tailwind: improving crude-oil sentiment tied to persistent Middle East supply disruption and unusually tight inventory conditions, which tends to lift large U.S. E&Ps. The move may also reflect investors leaning into COP’s ongoing capital-return framework, which can amplify upside on strong commodity days.

Details:

Oil-market attention has stayed focused on the Strait of Hormuz disruption and the risk of higher prices if the situation persists, supporting the broader energy complex.

U.S. government outlook commentary highlighted large projected global inventory draws in mid-2026 and maintained relatively high summer Brent assumptions, reinforcing the “tight supply” narrative that benefits upstream producers.

ConocoPhillips’ most recent quarterly release reiterated its shareholder return posture (ordinary dividend maintained and buyback authorization framework), which can provide a supportive backdrop when commodity-linked sentiment turns positive.

This could also be partially technical/positioning-driven after recent oil volatility, with buyers rotating back into liquid large-cap energy names.

Sources:

U.S. Energy Information Administration, ConocoPhillips, Axios

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$COP Insider Trading Activity

$COP insiders have traded $COP stock on the open market 12 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 12 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $COP stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

RYAN MICHAEL LANCE (Chairman and CEO) has made 0 purchases and 3 sales selling 1,120,729 shares for an estimated $125,834,473.
TIMOTHY A LEACH sold 40,000 shares for an estimated $4,751,684
ANDREW D LUNDQUIST (Senior Vice President) sold 34,500 shares for an estimated $4,128,960
NICHOLAS G OLDS (Executive Vice President) has made 0 purchases and 3 sales selling 33,666 shares for an estimated $4,035,861.
KELLY BRUNETTI ROSE (SVP & General Counsel) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 16,200 shares for an estimated $2,004,556.
WELSH KONTESSA S HAYNES (VP & Controller) sold 10,339 shares for an estimated $1,241,405
HEATHER G. HRAP (Senior Vice President) sold 2,654 shares for an estimated $317,630

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard. You can access data on insider stock transactions through the Quiver Quantitative API insider transaction endpoint.

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$COP Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 1,272 institutional investors add shares of $COP stock to their portfolio, and 1,107 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS removed 17,244,513 shares (-35.7%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $2,276,275,716
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP removed 10,605,411 shares (-44.1%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $1,399,914,252
FMR LLC added 8,244,241 shares (+39.0%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $1,088,239,812
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO removed 7,726,100 shares (-24.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $723,240,221
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ removed 6,628,442 shares (-34.2%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $874,954,344
HARRIS ASSOCIATES L P removed 6,574,096 shares (-27.4%) from their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $867,780,672
CAPITAL RESEARCH GLOBAL INVESTORS added 5,003,542 shares (+435.3%) to their portfolio in Q1 2026, for an estimated $660,467,544

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard. You can access data on hedge funds moves and 13F filings through the Quiver Quantitative API 13F endpoint.

$COP Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $COP stock 5 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 2 have been purchases and 3 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $COP stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. has traded it 3 times. They made 1 purchase worth up to $15,000 on 02/10 and 2 sales worth up to $65,000 on 01/09, 01/07.
SENATOR MARKWAYNE MULLIN purchased up to $50,000 on 12/29.
REPRESENTATIVE JULIE JOHNSON sold up to $15,000 on 12/18.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard. You can access data on congressional stock trades through the Quiver Quantitative API Congress trades endpoint.

$COP Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $COP in the last several months. We have seen 1 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Morgan Stanley issued a "Overweight" rating on 05/22/2026

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $COP, check out Quiver Quantitative's $COP forecast page.

$COP Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $COP recently. We have seen 15 analysts offer price targets for $COP in the last 6 months, with a median target of $125.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Nitin Kumar from Mizuho set a target price of $150.0 on 05/27/2026
Betty Jiang from Barclays set a target price of $155.0 on 05/26/2026
Devin McDermott from Morgan Stanley set a target price of $153.0 on 05/22/2026
Betty Zhang from Scotiabank set a target price of $125.0 on 04/22/2026
Sam Margolin from Wells Fargo set a target price of $183.0 on 04/09/2026
Ryan Todd from Piper Sandler set a target price of $157.0 on 04/08/2026
Alastair Syme from Citigroup set a target price of $150.0 on 04/02/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.