Caterpillar slides 3.4% as valuation concerns resurface ahead of upcoming earnings

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is down 3.4% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The drop looks tied to renewed “valuation/reset” worries following a recent bearish analyst shift that framed CAT as priced for near-perfect conditions despite potential margin and pricing pressure. The move may also reflect investors de-risking into Caterpillar’s late-April earnings event, where guidance could be a near-term swing factor.

Details:

Morgan Stanley recently moved to a more cautious stance on Caterpillar, emphasizing that the stock’s valuation leaves less room for error if pricing/margins soften.

Caterpillar’s next scheduled earnings release/call is set for late April, which can increase short-term volatility as traders reposition into the print.

Recent market commentary has increasingly treated Caterpillar as an “AI/power infrastructure” beneficiary, and any skepticism around that re-rating can trigger sharp pullbacks when sentiment cools.

Tariff and macro-demand uncertainty remains a recurring theme in the debate around 2026 earnings power, which can amplify downside moves on risk-off days.

Sources:

Caterpillar (Investor Relations), Seeking Alpha, Yahoo Finance

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$CAT Insider Trading Activity

$CAT insiders have traded $CAT stock on the open market 57 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 1 have been purchases and 56 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $CAT stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

LANGE BOB DE (Group President) has made 0 purchases and 7 sales selling 81,848 shares for an estimated $56,381,449.
DENISE C JOHNSON (Group President) has made 0 purchases and 8 sales selling 39,138 shares for an estimated $26,655,960.
ANTHONY D. FASSINO (Group President) has made 0 purchases and 4 sales selling 32,779 shares for an estimated $22,414,683.
ANDREW R J BONFIELD (Chief Financial Officer) has made 0 purchases and 14 sales selling 20,000 shares for an estimated $11,465,037.
JASON KAISER (Group President) has made 0 purchases and 14 sales selling 12,397 shares for an estimated $7,347,113.
RODNEY MICHAEL SHURMAN (Group President) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 4,042 shares for an estimated $3,077,011.
JOSEPH E CREED (Chief Executive Officer) has made 0 purchases and 5 sales selling 2,500 shares for an estimated $1,797,316.
WILLIAM E SCHAUPP (Chief Accounting Officer) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 2,172 shares for an estimated $1,429,466.
DAVID MACLENNAN purchased 300 shares for an estimated $170,658

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.

$CAT Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 1,527 institutional investors add shares of $CAT stock to their portfolio, and 1,413 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 12,772,236 shares (-78.3%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $7,316,830,837
NORGES BANK removed 5,579,193 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $3,196,152,293
CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS added 2,138,909 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $1,225,316,798
BLACKROCK, INC. added 1,924,397 shares (+5.6%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $1,102,429,309
CAPITAL RESEARCH GLOBAL INVESTORS removed 1,450,160 shares (-33.8%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $830,753,159
WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT GROUP LLP removed 1,368,156 shares (-26.2%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $783,775,527
NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT CO added 1,281,087 shares (+573.1%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $733,896,309

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$CAT Government Contracts

We have seen $278,131,835 of award payments to $CAT over the last year.

Here are some of the awards which we have have seen pay out the most over the last year:

8511390294!D9R TRACTOR DOZER: $87,034,944
8511336920!TRACTOR DOZER: $83,357,120
CAT EARTHMOVING SLEP: $6,936,620
8511039903!WHEEL LOADER: $3,175,643
STANDARD CONTRACT WITH BASE AND OPTION QUANTITIES FOR UP TO 110 DIESEL ENGINES (NSN 2815-01-568-0408) FOR E...: $2,909,775

To track government contracts to publicy traded companies, check out Quiver Quantitative's government contracts dashboard.

$CAT Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $CAT stock 4 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 4 have been purchases and 0 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $CAT stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

SENATOR JOHN BOOZMAN purchased up to $15,000 on 01/29.
SENATOR MARKWAYNE MULLIN purchased up to $50,000 on 12/29.
REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. has traded it 2 times. They made 2 purchases worth up to $30,000 on 11/18, 10/17 and 0 sales.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.

$CAT Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $CAT in the last several months. We have seen 5 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 1 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Wells Fargo issued a "Overweight" rating on 01/30/2026
Jefferies issued a "Buy" rating on 01/30/2026
JP Morgan issued a "Overweight" rating on 01/30/2026
Citigroup issued a "Buy" rating on 01/13/2026
Truist Securities issued a "Buy" rating on 10/30/2025
Morgan Stanley issued a "Underweight" rating on 10/30/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $CAT, check out Quiver Quantitative's $CAT forecast page.

$CAT Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $CAT recently. We have seen 15 analysts offer price targets for $CAT in the last 6 months, with a median target of $765.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Kyle Menges from Citigroup set a target price of $905.0 on 04/13/2026
Adam Seiden from Barclays set a target price of $700.0 on 04/01/2026
Kristen Owen from Oppenheimer set a target price of $817.0 on 03/06/2026
Jerry Revich from Wells Fargo set a target price of $870.0 on 02/25/2026
David Raso from Evercore ISI Group set a target price of $878.0 on 02/23/2026
Michael Feniger from B of A Securities set a target price of $825.0 on 02/10/2026
Angel Castillo from Morgan Stanley set a target price of $425.0 on 02/03/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.