CME slides as shares trade ex-dividend for $7.45 per share payout

CME Group Inc. (CME) is down 5.0% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The most direct driver appears to be CME shares trading ex-dividend for a large combined payout (regular quarterly dividend plus the company’s annual variable dividend). The size of the distribution can mechanically pressure the share price on the ex-dividend date, and the move may have been amplified by short-term profit-taking after a strong recent run and upbeat volume headlines.

Details:

CME’s board declared an annual variable dividend of $6.15 per share (based on 2025 results) alongside a regular quarterly dividend of $1.30 per share, both payable March 26, 2026 to shareholders of record March 10, 2026.

Market calendars widely listed March 10, 2026 as the ex-dividend date for the upcoming distribution, which typically causes the stock to adjust lower by roughly the dividend amount (all else equal).

CME reported a new monthly average daily volume record in February 2026 (37.6 million contracts, up 14% year over year), which may have pulled forward optimism and set up a “sell-the-news” reaction into the ex-dividend session.

An analyst downgrade earlier in March could also have contributed to incremental selling pressure into today’s tape.

Sources:

CME Group (press release), SEC (CME 10-K filing), Stock Analysis, GuruFocus

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$CME Insider Trading Activity

$CME insiders have traded $CME stock on the open market 16 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 4 have been purchases and 12 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $CME stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

TERRENCE A DUFFY (Chairman and CEO) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 25,000 shares for an estimated $6,738,815.
DEREK SAMMANN (Sr MD Gl Hd Commodities Mkts) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 7,200 shares for an estimated $1,984,798.
BRYAN T DURKIN sold 4,200 shares for an estimated $1,300,530
ELIZABETH A COOK sold 1,000 shares for an estimated $320,000
HAROLD EUGENE JR. FORD sold 1,000 shares for an estimated $263,530
DENNIS SUSKIND sold 748 shares for an estimated $224,400
JONATHAN L MARCUS (Sr MD General Counsel) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 768 shares for an estimated $200,072.
WILLIAM R SHEPARD has made 4 purchases buying 536 shares for an estimated $145,679 and 0 sales.
TIMOTHY FRANCIS MCCOURT (Sr MD Global Head Equity & FX) sold 379 shares for an estimated $98,475
MARTIN J GEPSMAN sold 300 shares for an estimated $91,770

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.

$CME Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 832 institutional investors add shares of $CME stock to their portfolio, and 803 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 7,716,211 shares (-75.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $2,107,142,899
STRIVE ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC added 2,355,701 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q3 2025, for an estimated $636,486,853
VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC added 1,807,491 shares (+746.4%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $493,589,642
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO added 1,559,916 shares (+16.3%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $425,981,861
LONGVIEW PARTNERS (GUERNSEY) LTD added 1,386,768 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $378,698,605
LONDON & CAPITAL ASSET MANAGEMENT LTD added 1,267,709 shares (+662.1%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $346,185,973
AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC removed 1,098,237 shares (-22.8%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $299,906,559

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$CME Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $CME stock 4 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 1 have been purchases and 3 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $CME stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. purchased up to $15,000 on 01/09.
REPRESENTATIVE JULIE JOHNSON has traded it 2 times. They made 0 purchases and 2 sales worth up to $30,000 on 12/18, 11/13.
REPRESENTATIVE VAL T. HOYLE sold up to $15,000 on 09/23.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.

$CME Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $CME in the last several months. We have seen 4 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 1 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Piper Sandler issued a "Overweight" rating on 11/13/2025
Deutsche Bank issued a "Buy" rating on 10/23/2025
Morgan Stanley issued a "Overweight" rating on 10/23/2025
Citigroup issued a "Buy" rating on 09/25/2025
JP Morgan issued a "Underweight" rating on 09/25/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $CME, check out Quiver Quantitative's $CME forecast page.

$CME Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $CME recently. We have seen 11 analysts offer price targets for $CME in the last 6 months, with a median target of $307.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Ashish Sabadra from RBC Capital set a target price of $302.0 on 02/05/2026
Bill Katz from TD Cowen set a target price of $328.0 on 02/05/2026
Kenneth Worthington from JP Morgan set a target price of $266.0 on 02/05/2026
Benjamin Budish from Barclays set a target price of $312.0 on 02/05/2026
Michael Cyprys from Morgan Stanley set a target price of $340.0 on 02/05/2026
Patrick Moley from Piper Sandler set a target price of $313.0 on 11/13/2025
Brian Bedell from Deutsche Bank set a target price of $300.0 on 10/23/2025

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.