Jon Gray is betting that the long-awaited reopening of the US IPO market is finally at hand, arguing that 2026 is shaping up to be a breakout year for public listings. Speaking at the WSJ Invest conference, the Blackstone president pointed to a friendlier regulatory backdrop, easing interest-rate pressure and a growing backlog of high-profile private companies preparing to tap public markets.
Gray said IPO momentum has been quietly building since last year, when Blackstone-backed Medline delivered the biggest US offering of the year. That success, combined with renewed confidence in capital markets, has encouraged both issuers and sponsors to accelerate timelines after years of delay driven by volatility and tighter financial conditions.
Market Overview:- Blackstone sees 2026 as a pivotal year for US IPO activity
- Lower interest rates and regulatory normalization are lifting deal confidence
- Large private companies are re-entering the public-market pipeline
- Gray cited Medline’s $6.26 billion IPO as a signal of renewed market depth
- Potential listings include marquee private firms such as SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic
- Blackstone reported a surprise jump in distributable earnings as dealmaking accelerated
- Gray expects labor-market trends and cooling inflation to support further rate cuts
- Investment-grade private credit is poised for strong growth across infrastructure sectors
- Normalized M&A reviews could further unlock pent-up transaction activity
- Jon Gray’s call for a breakout IPO year in 2026 aligns with an improving macro backdrop — easing rates, stabilizing inflation, and restored regulatory clarity — which collectively support renewed risk appetite for public listings.
- The success of large transactions like Blackstone-backed Medline’s $6.26 billion IPO demonstrates that investor demand for scale, profitability, and brand-name issuers remains robust, paving the way for a surge in high-profile debuts.
- Gray’s remarks suggest that marquee private companies such as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are nearing readiness to go public, which could reignite enthusiasm in equity markets and deliver liquidity events critical for venture and private equity investors.
- Blackstone’s own increase in distributable earnings and dealflow reinforces that both institutional capital and underwriting pipelines are expanding, supporting a synchronized recovery across equity, credit, and real-asset markets.
- Private credit’s strength — financing infrastructure, energy, and tech buildouts — provides a complementary bridge to public markets, linking capital formation with real economic investment and fueling a broader asset-class re-rating.
- For investors, 2026 could mark the early phase of a new equity cycle where improved transparency, normalized regulation, and pent-up issuance converge to refresh liquidity and portfolio diversification opportunities.
- Despite optimism, a meaningful rebound in IPOs could be capped by lingering valuation mismatches between private and public markets, as elevated investor selectivity forces issuers to accept lower multiples or delay listings again.
- Rate-cut expectations may prove premature if inflation re-accelerates or growth cools unevenly, leading to renewed market volatility that undermines confidence in capital formation and the IPO pipeline.
- High-profile issuers like OpenAI or SpaceX carry outsized expectations — if early 2026 offerings underperform, it could sour sentiment and stall broader issuance momentum for another cycle.
- While private credit’s growth looks strong on paper, systemic risks could emerge if weaker borrowers or sectors face tightening refinancing conditions, creating hidden stress within leveraged portfolios.
- Policy or geopolitical shocks — from election-year uncertainty to trade and regulatory disputes — could derail market confidence and pressure dealmakers to pull back just as pipelines expand.
- For investors, enthusiasm for a “reopening” IPO market could fade if first movers deliver mediocre returns, reinforcing structural caution after years of uneven listing outcomes and high post-IPO volatility.
Beyond IPOs, Gray struck an optimistic tone on private credit, emphasizing that headline risks have not matched conditions inside Blackstone’s portfolio. He acknowledged isolated stress among weaker borrowers but described the overall market as healthy, particularly at the higher-quality end of the credit spectrum.
Gray said investment-grade private credit is increasingly filling financing gaps left by traditional lenders, funding everything from energy and transportation to digital infrastructure and consumer finance. With capital abundant and policy easing expected to continue, he argued the foundation is in place for both public listings and private investment to expand in tandem.
