Alcoa slides as Q1 results miss expectations and shipment timing weighs on outlook

Alcoa Corporation (AA) is down 7.8% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The move looks tied to the market’s reaction to Alcoa’s first-quarter 2026 results released after Thursday’s close, which came in below consensus expectations despite stronger profitability year over year. Investors also appeared to focus on weaker shipments (especially alumina) from timing and logistics disruptions, plus commentary pointing to higher tariff costs even as the company expects some sequential improvement in Q2.

Details:

Alcoa reported Q1 2026 revenue of $3.193 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.40, alongside adjusted EBITDA (excluding special items) of $595 million.

Third-party alumina shipments fell 31% sequentially, with management citing seasonality, lower externally sourced alumina sales, and shipment delays in Australia tied to the Middle East conflict and Cyclone Narelle.

Total aluminum shipments decreased 8% sequentially, driven by proactive inventory repositioning within North America and reduced trading activity.

For Q2, Alcoa outlined expected sequential tailwinds in its Aluminum segment from higher shipments, product premiums, and lower production costs after completing the San Ciprián restart, while also flagging a roughly $35 million sequential increase in Section 232 tariff costs on U.S. imports of aluminum from Canada.

Sources:

SEC, Alcoa Investor Relations, Investing.com

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

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$AA Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 378 institutional investors add shares of $AA stock to their portfolio, and 223 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

MIRABELLA FINANCIAL SERVICES LLP removed 40,061,147 shares (-99.9%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $2,128,849,351
FMR LLC added 4,690,789 shares (+1940.0%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $249,268,527
L1 CAPITAL PTY LTD removed 4,342,223 shares (-73.8%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $230,745,730
BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP added 4,247,559 shares (+211.7%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $225,715,285
CASTLE HOOK PARTNERS LP added 3,968,265 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $210,873,602
MAPLE ROCK CAPITAL PARTNERS INC. added 3,263,300 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $173,411,762
AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC added 2,503,132 shares (+153.4%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $133,016,434

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$AA Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $AA in the last several months. We have seen 1 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 1 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

JP Morgan issued a "Underweight" rating on 01/08/2026
Citigroup issued a "Buy" rating on 12/19/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $AA, check out Quiver Quantitative's $AA forecast page.

$AA Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $AA recently. We have seen 7 analysts offer price targets for $AA in the last 6 months, with a median target of $75.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Carlos De Alba from Morgan Stanley set a target price of $80.0 on 04/09/2026
Katja Jancic from BMO Capital set a target price of $75.0 on 04/09/2026
Bill Peterson from JP Morgan set a target price of $70.0 on 04/09/2026
Nick Giles from B. Riley Securities set a target price of $96.0 on 04/07/2026
Alexander Hacking from Citigroup set a target price of $76.0 on 03/16/2026
Daniel Major from UBS set a target price of $70.0 on 03/12/2026
Timna Tanners from Wells Fargo set a target price of $64.0 on 01/23/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.