ASML slides 3.4% despite raising 2026 sales outlook as investors focus on softer Q2 margin view and export-control uncertainty

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) is down 3.4% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: Even with a solid Q1 report and a higher full-year 2026 sales outlook, the stock appears to be reacting to a less-enthusiastic near-term setup. Investors may be weighing lower Q2 gross margin guidance, a sequential drop in system volumes, and lingering uncertainty around export controls.

Details:

ASML reported Q1 2026 total net sales of €8.8 billion and net income of €2.8 billion, with gross margin at 53.0%.

For Q2 2026, ASML guided to total net sales of €8.4–€9.0 billion and gross margin of 51%–52%, implying margin pressure versus Q1.

ASML increased its full-year 2026 net sales outlook to €36–€40 billion (from a prior range disclosed earlier in 2026), but noted the guidance range is meant to accommodate potential outcomes tied to ongoing export-control discussions.

ASML sold 67 new lithography systems in Q1 versus 94 in Q4, which could be feeding concerns about the timing of high-value tool shipments despite strong long-term demand signals.

Sources:

ASML (press release & investor presentation), Yahoo Finance, Associated Press

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$ASML Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 936 institutional investors add shares of $ASML stock to their portfolio, and 774 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO removed 1,253,529 shares (-43.3%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $1,341,100,535
ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP added 1,022,532 shares (+195.8%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $1,093,966,085
EDGEWOOD MANAGEMENT LLC removed 791,258 shares (-34.6%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $846,535,283
EAGLE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC removed 711,488 shares (-46.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $761,192,551
LONE PINE CAPITAL LLC added 605,017 shares (+inf%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $647,283,487
CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS removed 509,733 shares (-13.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $545,342,947
BAROMETER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC. added 505,128 shares (+311807.4%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $540,416,242

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$ASML Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $ASML stock 4 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 2 have been purchases and 2 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $ASML stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. purchased up to $15,000 on 01/30.
REPRESENTATIVE LISA C. MCCLAIN has traded it 3 times. They made 1 purchase worth up to $15,000 on 10/30 and 2 sales worth up to $30,000 on 10/31, 10/30.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.

$ASML Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $ASML in the last several months. We have seen 5 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 0 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

Barclays issued a "Overweight" rating on 01/29/2026
RBC Capital issued a "Outperform" rating on 01/15/2026
Bernstein issued a "Outperform" rating on 01/05/2026
B of A Securities issued a "Buy" rating on 12/03/2025
JP Morgan issued a "Overweight" rating on 12/01/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $ASML, check out Quiver Quantitative's $ASML forecast page.

$ASML Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $ASML recently. We have seen 6 analysts offer price targets for $ASML in the last 6 months, with a median target of $1571.5.

Here are some recent targets:

David Dai from Bernstein set a target price of $1971.0 on 03/26/2026
Srini Pajjuri from RBC Capital set a target price of $1625.0 on 01/29/2026
Joseph Quatrochi from Wells Fargo set a target price of $1650.0 on 01/29/2026
Leon Chen from KGI Securities set a target price of $1415.0 on 01/15/2026
Sandeep Deshpande from JP Morgan set a target price of $1518.0 on 01/14/2026
Didier Scemama from B of A Securities set a target price of $1331.0 on 12/03/2025

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.