A trader just put $49,617 into contracts betting on "Cut 25bps" in a "Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2025 meeting?" market.
This is one of the largest trades we have seen on a prediction market over the last day.
Market Context
This contract comes from Kalshi’s prediction markets, which allow traders to bet on the outcome of specific events. From our prediction market tracking, the trade was made on 10/05 at 11:03 PM EST when the market was giving a 89% chance of their bet paying off.
There have been 130,515 contracts traded in this market in the last day.
Market Rules
Here are some of the rules that were given for the market:
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 29, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
You can find up-to-date information on Kalshi.
Why this matters
The market focusing on Federal Reserve interest rate decisions plays a critical role in reflecting investor sentiment and expectations regarding future monetary policy. Such markets provide a real-time aggregation of beliefs about the likelihood of rate cuts, hikes, or holds, which can influence financial conditions and economic forecasts.
Accurate pricing in these markets enhances transparency and helps market participants—including businesses, policymakers, and investors—make more informed decisions. By quantifying consensus views on interest rate moves, these platforms contribute to a deeper understanding of economic outlooks and risk assessments, underlining their significance in financial markets and monetary policy analysis.
