A trader just put $49,236 into contracts betting on "24,900 or above" in a "Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 24899.99 at the end of Oct 8, 2025 at 4pm EDT?" market.
This is one of the largest trades we have seen on a prediction market over the last day.
Market Context
This contract comes from Kalshi’s prediction markets, which allow traders to bet on the outcome of specific events. From our prediction market tracking, the trade was made on 10/08 at 10:35 AM EST when the market was giving a 89% chance of their bet paying off.
There have been 55,784 contracts traded in this market in the last day.
Market Rules
Here are some of the rules that were given for the market:
If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on October 08, 2025 is above 24899.99, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close on October 08, 2025. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after October 08, 2025.
Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets. See the rules for more information.
You can find up-to-date information on Kalshi.
Why this matters
The prediction market for the Nasdaq-100 index value provides critical insights into market expectations and investor sentiment over a multi-year horizon. By aggregating diverse opinions through contract pricing, these markets offer a dynamic and transparent measure of future economic outcomes.
Such financial platforms play a pivotal role in pricing uncertainty and enabling risk management for institutional and retail participants alike. They serve as a real-time barometer for probability-based forecasting, which is essential for informed decision-making in complex markets.
