A trader just put $28,590 into contracts betting on "Cut 25bps" in a "Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2025 meeting?" market.
This is one of the largest trades we have seen on a prediction market over the last day.
Market Context
This contract comes from Kalshi’s prediction markets, which allow traders to bet on the outcome of specific events. From our prediction market tracking, the trade was made on 10/03 at 10:04 AM EST when the market was giving a 89% chance of their bet paying off.
There have been 238,847 contracts traded in this market in the last day.
Market Rules
Here are some of the rules that were given for the market:
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 29, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
You can find up-to-date information on Kalshi.
Why this matters
The market for Federal Reserve rate decisions is a critical barometer for gauging economic policy expectations. It reflects collective market sentiment on the trajectory of monetary policy, offering insights into inflation management, economic growth prospects, and financial stability.
Prediction markets focused on rate changes serve as a valuable tool for investors, economists, and policymakers. They aggregate the diverse expectations around the timing and magnitude of rate adjustments, providing a transparent and real-time probabilistic forecast that influences strategic decision-making across financial markets.
