A trader just put $24,570 into contracts betting against "Fed maintains rate" in a "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2025 meeting?" market.
This is one of the largest trades we have seen on a prediction market over the last day.
Market Context
This contract comes from Kalshi’s prediction markets, which allow traders to bet on the outcome of specific events. From our prediction market tracking, the trade was made on 10/08 at 10:20 AM EST when the market was giving a 91% chance of their bet paying off.
There have been 187,121 contracts traded in this market in the last day.
Market Rules
Here are some of the rules that were given for the market:
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on October 29, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
You can find up-to-date information on Kalshi.
Why this matters
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are among the most closely watched economic variables globally, influencing financial markets, inflation expectations, and economic growth trajectories. Markets that facilitate wagers on these outcomes provide critical insight into collective market sentiment and anticipated monetary policy actions.
Prediction markets offer a unique aggregation of dispersed information, reflecting real-time expectations of policymakers' decisions. In the context of Federal Reserve rate hikes, such markets serve as an important barometer for investors, offering transparency and aiding risk management amid uncertain economic conditions.
