A trader just put $23,100 into contracts betting on "$121,750 or above" in a "Bitcoin price on Oct 7, 2025?" market.
This is one of the largest trades we have seen on a prediction market over the last day.
Market Context
This contract comes from Kalshi’s prediction markets, which allow traders to bet on the outcome of specific events. From our prediction market tracking, the trade was made on 10/07 at 04:06 PM EST when the market was giving a 77% chance of their bet paying off.
There have been 73,200 contracts traded in this market in the last day.
Market Rules
Here are some of the rules that were given for the market:
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 5 PM EDT is above 121749.99 at 5 PM EDT on Oct 7, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices.
You can find up-to-date information on Kalshi.
Why this matters
The prediction market for Bitcoin price serves as a critical tool for gauging investor sentiment and expectations regarding the future trajectory of cryptocurrency valuations. By aggregating diverse participant views into a single market price, it provides real-time insights into market consensus about Bitcoin's long-term value prospects.
These markets enhance price discovery and transparency, enabling more informed decision-making by traders, analysts, and policymakers. The ability to trade on defined event outcomes linked to an established pricing index ensures credible benchmarks that reflect collective market intelligence on cryptocurrency price movements.
