H.R. 9367: Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act

This bill would add new rules meant to stop Members of Congress, along with their spouses and dependent children, from using “prediction markets” to profit from information they learn through their positions.

What counts as a prediction market trade

The bill would prohibit covered individuals from entering into, or even offering to enter into, agreements or transactions whose payout depends on:

• a specific government policy,
• a government action,
• a political outcome, or
• any other event that a Member of Congress learned about, directly or indirectly, because of their service in Congress.

In practical terms, this would bar lawmakers and the listed family members from betting or trading on outcomes tied to government or political events through these markets.

Who is covered

The bill applies to:

• Members of Congress,
• their spouses, and
• their dependent children.

Ethics guidance

The supervising ethics office would be required to issue guidance on any terms in the bill that are not already defined. The offices could also provide interpretive guidance and consider mitigating or aggravating circumstances when applying the rules.

Penalties and enforcement

If a covered individual violates the ban, the supervising ethics office could require a fee to be paid by the Member of Congress connected to the violation. The fee would be:

• $2,000 or 10% of the value of the prohibited transaction, whichever is greater, plus
• any net profit made from the transaction during the time period covered by the rule.

The bill says these penalties could not be paid using congressional office funds or campaign-related donations. Any collected fees would go into the general fund of the Treasury. If a former Member resigns or retires before paying, the ethics office could refer the matter to the Department of Justice.

When it would take effect

The bill would take effect 180 days after it is enacted.

Relevant Companies

None found.