H.R. 8569: No Bias in the Baseline Act

This bill, titled the No Bias in the Baseline Act, proposes changes to how budget baselines are calculated in the federal budget process. The key components of the bill are detailed below:

Modification of Baseline Calculation

The bill seeks to amend Section 257 of the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985 to establish clearer guidelines for determining what constitutes the baseline for budget projections. The main points are as follows:

• The baseline will reflect projections based solely on existing laws and the assumption that current levels of discretionary spending will continue into the future.
• New language specifies that projections of budget authority, outlays, revenues, and deficits will be grounded on laws effective as of a specified date, without adjusting for inflation or other economic factors.
• There is an emphasis on maintaining projections based on previously existing laws regarding direct spending and receipts, without alteration.

Exclusion of Inflation Adjustments

Notably, the bill includes a provision that explicitly states there will be no adjustment for inflation or any similar factors when projecting future budgets. This adjustment aims to create a more stable and predictable budget baseline that is less influenced by economic fluctuations.

Conforming Amendments

The bill also includes provisions to amend existing legislative frameworks to align with the new baseline calculations:

• Changes will be made to the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974, ensuring that baseline calculations are consistent across various sections of budget law.
• Modifications will be applied to the Social Security Act to accommodate the anticipated legislative changes.

CBO Publication of Alternative Fiscal Scenarios

Furthermore, the bill requires that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) include alternative fiscal scenarios in its reports. These scenarios will be developed in consultation with the Budget Committees of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, providing a broader picture of potential fiscal outcomes beyond the baseline estimates.

Overall Intent

The primary intent behind these modifications is to clarify and standardize how budget baselines are calculated, reducing potential biases in budget forecasting. By focusing strictly on current laws and avoiding adjustments for fluctuating economic conditions, the legislation aims for consistency and predictability in federal budgeting.

Relevant Companies

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