H.R. 10109: Wildfire Event Contract Prohibition Act

This bill would change federal commodities law to ban prediction-market contracts tied to wildfires. In plain terms, it would stop federally regulated trading platforms from offering contracts whose value depends on wildfire-related events.

What would be prohibited

The bill says that no agreement, contract, transaction, or swap based on a wildfire event could be listed, cleared, or traded on a registered entity. It also covers contracts tied to data or measures related to a wildfire, such as:

• whether a wildfire ignites or occurs
• where it happens
• how long it lasts
• how intense or large it is
• how far it spreads
• whether and when it is contained
• evacuation results
• injury, death, or property damage caused by the wildfire

So, for example, a market where people could bet on the size or duration of a wildfire would not be allowed on a federally regulated platform.

Why Congress says it is doing this

The bill includes a statement of congressional opinion saying wildfire event contracts could:

• create a financial incentive to profit from wildfire destruction
• undermine trust in emergency response decisions
• encourage misuse of nonpublic information about wildfires
• amount to gambling on damage to homes, businesses, natural resources, and communities

It also says the bill does not override state gambling or gaming laws.

Additional federal review of wildfire-related wagering

The bill would require the Attorney General, working with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and certain other federal officials, to review existing federal criminal and civil laws related to trying to influence, exploit, or profit from a wildfire through event contracts or other wagers. This review must be completed within 180 days after enactment.

The review would look at several specific issues, including whether current laws cover:

• intentionally starting or trying to start a wildfire to affect a bet or contract
• trading based on nonpublic information about wildfire conditions or response efforts
• fraud, conspiracy, aiding and abetting, market manipulation, money laundering, forfeiture, and illegal gambling laws
• the ability to police these activities when they involve offshore platforms, digital assets, or other cross-border methods
• coordination problems among federal, state, local, and wildfire response agencies
• whether new laws, stronger penalties, reporting rules, or information-sharing rules are needed

After the review, the Attorney General would have 30 days to send a report to House and Senate committees describing the findings and any legislative recommendations.

Relevant Companies

None found