Risk Factors Dashboard

Once a year, publicly traded companies issue a comprehensive report of their business, called a 10-K. A component mandated in the 10-K is the ‘Risk Factors’ section, where companies disclose any major potential risks that they may face. This dashboard highlights all major changes and additions in new 10K reports, allowing investors to quickly identify new potential risks and opportunities.

Risk Factors - XGN

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Item 1A. Risk Factors.
Investing in our common stock involves a high degree of risk. You should consider carefully the risks and uncertainties described below, together with all of the other information included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, including our financial statements and related notes and "Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations," before making an investment decision to purchase or sell shares of our common stock. If any of the following risks are realized, our business, financial condition, results of operations and prospects could be materially and adversely affected. In that event, the trading price of our common stock could decline, and you could lose part or all of your investment. The risks described below are not the only ones that we may face, and additional risks or uncertainties not known to us or that we currently deem immaterial may also impair our business and future prospects.
Summary Risk Factors
The risk factors described below are a summary of the principal risk factors associated with an investment in us. These are not the only risks we face. You should carefully consider these risk factors, together with the risk factors set forth in this Item 1A:
We have a history of losses, we expect to incur net losses in the future and we may not be able to generate sufficient revenue to achieve and maintain profitability;
If third-party payors do not provide coverage and adequate reimbursement for our testing products, or they breach, rescind or modify their contracts or reimbursement policies or delay payments for our testing products, or if we or our partners are unable to successfully negotiate payor contracts, our commercial success could be compromised;
In the near-term, we expect that our financial results will depend primarily on sales of our testing products, and we will need to generate sufficient revenue from these testing products to grow our business;
We may be unable to manage our growth effectively, which could make it difficult to execute our business strategy;
Our commercial success depends on attaining and maintaining significant market acceptance of our testing products among rheumatologists, patients, third-party payors and others in the medical community;
We rely on sole suppliers for some of the reagents, equipment and other materials used in our testing products, and we may not be able to fund replacements or transition to alternative suppliers;
If we are unable to support demand for our current testing products or any of our future testing products or solutions, our business could suffer;
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If we are unable to compete successfully, we may be unable to increase or sustain our revenue or achieve profitability;
Developing new testing products involves a lengthy and complex process, and we may not be able to commercialize on a timely basis, or at all, other testing products we are developing;
If our sole clinical laboratory facility becomes damaged or inoperable, we are required to vacate our existing facility or we are unable to expand our existing facility as needed, we will be unable to perform our testing services and our business will be harmed;
We may require substantial additional capital to finance our planned operations, which may not be available to us on acceptable terms or at all. Our failure to obtain additional financing when needed on acceptable terms, or at all, could force us to delay, limit, reduce or eliminate our product development programs, commercialization efforts or other operations;
We have identified a material weakness in our internal control over financial reporting and determined that our disclosure controls and procedures were ineffective as of December 31, 2022, in connection with the restatement of our financial statements as of and for the three and six months ended June 30, 2022. In the future, we may identify additional material weaknesses or otherwise fail to maintain an effective system of internal control over financial reporting or adequate disclosure controls and procedures, which may result in material errors in our financial statements or cause us to fail to meet our period reporting obligations;
We conduct business in a heavily regulated industry. Complying with the numerous statutes and regulations pertaining to our business is expensive and time-consuming, and any failure by us, our consultants or commercial partners to comply could result in substantial penalties;
We may be required to modify our business practices, pay fines, incur significant expenses or experience losses due to litigation or governmental investigations;
The FDA may disagree with our assessment that our AVISE® test products and any other tests we may develop are LDTs and determine that such test products are medical devices subject to the FDCA and FDA regulations;
If we are unable to maintain intellectual property protection, our competitive position could be harmed; and
If we fail to comply with our obligations in the agreements under which we license intellectual property rights from third parties or otherwise experience disruptions to our business relationships with our licensors, we could lose license rights that are important to our business.
Risks Related to Our Business and Strategy
We have a history of losses, we expect to incur net losses in the future and we may not be able to generate sufficient revenue to achieve and maintain profitability.
We have incurred net losses since our inception. For the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, we incurred net losses of $47.4 million and $26.9 million, respectively, and we expect to incur additional losses in 2023 and in future years. For the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, we incurred net losses of $26.9 and $16.7 million, respectively, and we expect to incur additional losses in 2022 and in future years. As of December 31, 2022, we had an accumulated deficit of $255.5 million. Over the next several years, we expect to continue to devote substantially all of our resources to increase adoption of, and reimbursement for, our testing products and to develop future testing products. Over the next several years, we expect to continue to devote substantially all of our resources to increase adoption of, and reimbursement for, our testing products, to develop future testing products and intend to continue to pursue our integrated testing and therapeutics strategy. We experienced and may continue to experience decreases in test volumes due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We have experienced and may continue to experience decreases in test volumes due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We may not be able to generate sufficient revenue to achieve and maintain profitability. Our failure to achieve and maintain profitability in the future could cause the market price of our common stock to decline.
If third-party payors do not provide coverage and adequate reimbursement for our testing products, or they breach, rescind or modify their contracts or reimbursement policies or delay payments for our testing products, or if we or our partners are unable to successfully negotiate payor contracts, our commercial success could be compromised.
Successful commercialization of our testing products depends, in large part, on the availability of coverage and adequate reimbursement from third-party payors, including government payors, such as Medicare and Medicaid and commercial payors. For the testing products that we develop and commercialize, each third-party payor decides whether to cover the product, the amount it will reimburse for a covered product and the specific conditions for reimbursement. For the testing products that we develop and commercialize as well as the therapeutics we promote, each third-party payor decides whether to cover the product, the amount it will reimburse for a covered product and the specific conditions for reimbursement.
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Reimbursement by third-party payors may depend on a number of factors, including the payor’s determination that tests using our technologies are:
not experimental or investigational;
medically necessary;
demonstrated to lead to improved patient outcomes;
appropriate for the specific patient;
cost-saving or cost-effective;
supported by peer-reviewed medical journals; and
included in clinical guidelines.
If we are unable to provide third-party payors with sufficient evidence of the clinical utility and validity of our test, they may not provide coverage, or may provide limited coverage, which will adversely affect our revenue and our ability to succeed. In addition, clinicians may be less likely to order a test unless third-party payors pay a substantial portion of the test price. Therefore, coverage determinations and reimbursement levels and conditions are critical to commercial success, and if we are not able to secure positive coverage determinations and reimbursement levels, our business will be materially adversely affected.
Third-party payors and other entities also conduct technology assessments of new medical tests and devices and provide and/or sell the results of their assessments to other parties. These assessments may be used by third-party payors and healthcare providers as grounds to deny coverage for or refuse to use a test or procedure. In addition, third-party payors have increased their efforts to control the cost, utilization and delivery of healthcare services. These measures have resulted in reduced payment rates and decreased utilization for the diagnostics industry.
Effective April 25, 2012, Palmetto GBA, the Medicare MolDx Program, assigned the AVISE® MTX assay a unique identifier and determined that the test meets the applicable Medicare coverage criteria to support dose optimization and therapeutic decision making for patients diagnosed with RA on methotrexate. Our current Medicare Administrative Contractor, Noridian, has adopted this coverage policy. Our current Medicare Administrative Contractor, Noridian Healthcare Solutions, LLC, or Noridian, has adopted this coverage policy. In addition and effective April 1, 2022, CMS agreed to recognize a new PLA code for our protein-based test, AVISE® Lupus. Noridian priced this PLA code at $1,085 per test. To determine pricing beyond 2022, CMS recommended crosswalking AVISE® Lupus (0312U) to Vectra (81490) at a rate of $840.65 per test. This pricing was finalized on the 2023 CLFS and is effective from January 1, 2023 through December 31, 2025. A pricing determination is not synonymous with a coverage determination. Having a price associated with the PLA code for any particular test does not secure coverage or reimbursement for that PLA code from Medicare or any other third-party payor. So, in an effort to improve transparency regarding Medicare support of AVISE® Lupus, we submitted a formal request to Noridian for coverage of our AVISE® Lupus test under the new PLA Code. On September 27, 2022, we received notice that Noridian has deemed our application for an LCD to be valid. Ultimately receiving a favorable LCD is uncertain and may be time-consuming, resource intensive and require multiple quarterly or annual periods to complete. We have faced and may again face or continue to face challenges relating to commercial payor claim processing and revenue with our tests.
Other third-party payors make their own decisions as to whether to establish a policy to reimburse our testing products. Other third-party payors make their own decisions as to whether to establish a policy to reimburse our testing products. Because approvals must be sought on a payor by payor basis, establishing broad coverage is a time-consuming and costly process. There are many third-party payors who have not yet established a coverage policy applicable to our testing products. In addition, several commercial payors issued non-coverage policies with respect to AVISE® Lupus, determining that AVISE® Lupus does not meet the medical criteria for coverage and is considered investigational and/or experimental.
While our testing products are reimbursed by a number of third-party payors, we do not currently have contracts with significant private payors. We have in the past, and will likely in the future, experience delays and temporary interruptions in the receipt of payments from third-party payors due to changes in their internal processes, documentation requirements and other issues, which could cause our revenue to fluctuate from period to period.
If we are not successful in reversing existing non-coverage policies, or if other third-party payors issue negative coverage policies, these policies could have a material adverse effect on our business and operations. Even if many third-party payors currently reimburse for our testing products, such payors may withdraw coverage at any time, review and adjust the rate of reimbursement, require co-payments from patients or stop paying for our testing products altogether, any of which would reduce our revenue.
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In the near-term, we expect that our financial results will depend primarily on sales of our testing products, and we will need to generate sufficient revenue from these testing products to grow our business.
A significant majority of our historical revenue has been derived from the sale of our AVISE® CTD testing product, which we commercially launched in 2012. In the near term, we expect to continue to derive a majority of our revenue from sales of AVISE® CTD. We are in various stages of research and development with respect to other testing products that we may offer, but there can be no assurance that we will be able to commercialize these testing products.
The demand for our testing products may decrease or may not continue to increase at historical rates for a number of reasons. In addition, at any point in time we may decide to no longer commercialize any of our testing products for any number of reasons. While we have experienced revenue growth from the sale of our testing products, we may not be able to sustain this growth or maintain existing revenue levels. Further, we cannot ensure the continued availability of our testing products in commercial quantities at acceptable costs. If we are unable to increase sales of our testing products, expand reimbursement for our testing products, or successfully develop and commercialize additional testing products, our revenue and our ability to achieve and sustain profitability would be impaired, and the market price of our common stock could decline.
We may be unable to manage our growth effectively, which could make it difficult to execute our business strategy. We may be unable to manage our ongoing and future growth effectively, which could make it difficult to execute our business strategy.
In addition to the need to scale our testing capacity, our future growth plans may also impose significant added responsibilities on management, including the need to identify, recruit, train and integrate additional employees and the need to manage additional relationships with various partners, suppliers and other third parties. In addition, if we were to experience rapid and significant growth, our administrative and operational infrastructure may be strained, requiring us to expand our financial, development, regulatory, manufacturing, marketing and sales capabilities or contract with third parties to provide these capabilities for us. In addition, rapid and significant growth may strain our administrative and operational infrastructure and require us to expand our financial, development, regulatory, manufacturing, marketing and sales capabilities or contract with third parties to provide these capabilities for us. Our ability to manage our business and growth, as well as function as a public company, will require us to continue to improve our operational, financial and management controls, reporting systems and procedures. The time and resources required to optimize these systems is uncertain, and failure to complete optimization in a timely and efficient manner could adversely affect our operations. If we are unable to manage our ongoing and future growth effectively, it may be difficult for us to execute our business strategy and our business could be harmed.
Our commercial success depends upon attaining and maintaining significant market acceptance of our testing products among rheumatologists, patients, third-party payors and others in the medical community.
Our success depends on our ability to continue to develop and market testing products that are recognized and accepted as safe, effective, reliable and cost effective, and any testing product that we offer may not gain or maintain market acceptance among rheumatologists, third-party payors, patients or the medical community. Market acceptance of our testing products depends on a number of factors, including:
the perceived accuracy of our test results by rheumatologists and patients;
the potential and perceived advantages of our testing products over alternative products;
the demonstration of the performance and clinical validity of our testing products in clinical studies, the results of which, may not replicate the positive results from earlier studies;
the introduction of new tests that compete with our testing products;
the product cost in relation to alternative products;
publicity concerning our testing products or competing products and treatments;
the availability of coverage and adequate reimbursement by third-party payors, including government authorities;
relative convenience and ease of administration; and
the effectiveness of our sales and marketing efforts.
In addition, if we or our future partners have to withdraw a product from the market, it could harm our business and/or impact market acceptance of our other testing products.In addition, if we or our future partners have to withdraw a product from the market, it could harm our business and could impact market acceptance of our other testing products or promoted therapeutics. Further, our AVISE® testing products consist of various biomarkers, any of which could independently encounter issues with manufacturing, supply or overall quality. If any of the biomarkers in our AVISE® CTD test were to encounter any issues, we may experience an impact in the overall
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success of AVISE® CTD as a whole, including a reduction in average selling price or overall revenue, until such time as it can be remedied. Moreover, if our testing products do not achieve an adequate level of acceptance by rheumatologists, hospitals, third-party payors or patients, we may not generate sufficient revenue from that testing product and may not become or remain profitable. Moreover, if our testing products and promoted therapeutics do not achieve an adequate level of acceptance by rheumatologists, hospitals, third-party payors or patients, we may not generate sufficient revenue from that testing product or therapeutic and may not become or remain profitable. Our efforts to educate the medical community and third-party payors regarding the benefits of our testing products may require significant resources and may never be successful. Our efforts to educate the medical community and third-party payors regarding the benefits of our testing products and promoted therapeutics may require significant resources and may never be successful.
We may experience limits on our revenue if rheumatologists decide not to order our testing products or if we are otherwise unable to create or maintain demand for our testing products.
If we are unable to create or maintain demand for our testing products in sufficient volume, we may not generate sufficient revenue to become profitable. To generate increased demand, we will need to continue to educate rheumatologists about the benefits of our testing products through publications in peer-reviewed medical journals, presentations at medical conferences and other similar means. For example, in the fourth quarter of 2022, we were featured in nine scientific presentations at the 2022 ACR Annual Conference, ACR Convergence 2022. We will also need to generate demand for our testing products through one-on-one education by our sales force. We also plan to focus on educating patients about the benefits of these testing products, which we believe will be necessary to generate further demand. We also plan to focus on educating patients about the benefits of these testing products and potentially therapeutics, which we believe will be necessary to generate further demand. In addition, our inability to obtain and maintain coverage and adequate reimbursement from third-party payors may limit adoption by rheumatologists, as well as third-party payors exerting pressure on rheumatologists and healthcare providers to order in-network testing products which could adversely affect our revenue.
Rheumatologists may rely on guidelines issued by industry groups regarding the diagnosis, prognosis, treatment and monitoring of autoimmune and autoimmune-related diseases, and the monitoring of the effectiveness of therapeutic drugs used to treat such diseases before utilizing any diagnostic test or monitoring solution.
The sizes of the markets for our testing products have not been established with precision, and may be smaller than we estimate.
Our estimates of the annual total addressable markets for our current and potential future testing products are based on a number of internal and third-party estimates. These include, without limitation, the number of patients with autoimmune and autoimmune-related diseases and the assumed prices at which we can sell testing products and our partners can sell therapeutics in markets that have not been established. While we believe our assumptions and the data underlying our estimates are reasonable, these assumptions and estimates may not be correct and the conditions supporting our assumptions or estimates may change at any time, thereby reducing the predictive accuracy of these underlying factors. As a result, our estimates of the annual total addressable market for our current and potential future testing products may prove to be incorrect. If the actual number of patients who would benefit from our testing products, the price at which we and our partners can sell future testing products, or the annual total addressable market for our testing products is smaller than we have estimated, it may impair our sales growth and have an adverse impact on our business. If the actual number of patients who would benefit from our testing products and promoted therapeutics, the price at which we and our partners can sell future testing products, or the annual total addressable market for our testing products is smaller than we have estimated, it may impair our sales growth and have an adverse impact on our business.
We may expend our limited resources to pursue a particular testing product and fail to capitalize on other testing products that may be more profitable or for which there is a greater likelihood of success.
Because we have limited financial and managerial resources, we focus on specific testing products. As a result, we may forego or delay pursuit of opportunities with others that could have had greater commercial potential. Our resource allocation decisions may cause us to fail to capitalize on viable commercial products or profitable market opportunities. In addition, our spending on current and future research and development programs for testing products may not yield any commercially viable testing products. If we do not accurately evaluate the commercial potential or target market for a potential testing product, we may forego other similar arrangements which would have been more advantageous for us to pursue. If we do not accurately evaluate the commercial potential or target market for a potential testing product or promoted therapeutic, we may forego other similar arrangements which would have been more advantageous for us to pursue.
Our operating results may fluctuate significantly, which makes our future operating results difficult to predict and could cause our operating results to fall below expectations or any guidance we may provide.
Our quarterly and annual operating results may fluctuate significantly, which makes it difficult for us to predict our future operating results. These fluctuations may occur due to a variety of factors, many of which are outside of our control, including, but not limited to:
our ability to successfully market and sell our AVISE® testing products;
the extent to which our current testing and future testing products, if any, are eligible for coverage and reimbursement from third-party payors;
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public health crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic;
the timing and cost of, and level of investment in, research, development, regulatory approval and commercialization activities relating to our testing products, which may change from time to time, and our ability to successfully commercialize new testing products;
the cost of supplies, equipment and materials used for our testing products and laboratory operations, which may vary depending on the quantity of production and the terms of our agreements with third-party suppliers and manufacturers;
expenditures that we may incur to acquire, develop or commercialize additional testing products and technologies;
the level of demand for our testing products, which may vary significantly;
the receipt, timing and mix of revenue for our testing products;
future accounting pronouncements or changes in our accounting policies;
the rate and extent to which payors make an overpayment determination and require us to return all or some portion of payments which we received in a prior period; and
the timing and success or failure of competing products, or any other change in the competitive landscape of our industry, including consolidation among our competitors or partners.
The cumulative effects of these factors could result in large fluctuations and unpredictability in our quarterly and annual operating results. As a result, comparing our operating results on a period-to-period basis may not be meaningful. Investors should not rely on our past results as an indication of our future performance.
This variability and unpredictability could also result in our failing to meet the expectations of industry or financial analysts or investors for any period. If our revenue or operating results fall below the expectations of analysts or investors or below any forecasts we may provide to the market, it could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results or operations.
We rely on sole suppliers for some of the reagents, equipment and other materials used in our testing products, and we may not be able to find replacements or transition to alternative suppliers.
We rely on sole suppliers for critical supply of reagents, equipment and other materials that we use to perform the tests that comprise our testing products. We also purchase components used in our specimen collection and transportation kits from sole-source suppliers. We also purchase components used in our testing product transportation kits from sole-source suppliers. Some of these items are unique to these suppliers and vendors. While we have developed alternate sourcing strategies for many of these materials and vendors, we cannot be certain whether these strategies will be effective or the alternative sources will be available when we need them. We are not a major customer of some of our suppliers, and these suppliers may therefore give other customers’ needs higher priority than ours. If our suppliers can no longer provide us with the materials we need to perform the tests that comprise our testing products if the materials do not meet our quality specifications, or if we cannot obtain acceptable substitute materials, an interruption in test processing could occur and, in certain circumstances, we may be required to amend or cancel test results we have issued. If our suppliers can no longer provide us with the materials we need to perform the tests that comprise our testing products, including as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, if the materials do not meet our quality specifications, or if we cannot obtain acceptable substitute materials, an interruption in test processing could occur and, in certain circumstances, we may be required to amend or cancel test results we have issued. For example, in November 2019, we identified a potential quality issue with reagents for Anti-CarP, a biomarker that can be ordered with our AVISE® CTD test that was resolved in September 2020. However, if we are unable to remedy future potential quality issues with unique reagent suppliers, or otherwise find a supplier for future biomarkers with issues, we may experience difficulties obtaining market acceptance for our products. Moreover, any issues with quality may result in a change from time to time of the composition of our tests, including our AVISE® CTD test, which could impact the average selling price and revenues received from sales of such test.
In addition, if we should encounter delays or difficulties in securing the quality and quantity of equipment we require for our testing products, we may need to reconfigure our test processes, which could result in an interruption in sales. Any such interruption may significantly affect our future revenue and harm our customer relations and reputation. In addition, in order to mitigate these risks, we may need to maintain inventories of these supplies at higher levels than would be the case if multiple sources of supply were available.
If we are unable to support demand for our current testing products or any of our future testing products or solutions, our business could suffer.
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If demand for our testing products or any of our future testing products or solutions grows, we will need to continue to scale our testing capacity and processing technology, expand customer service, billing and systems processes and enhance our internal quality assurance program. We may also need additional certified laboratory scientists and other scientific and technical personnel to process higher volumes of our testing products. We cannot assure you that any increases in scale, related improvements and quality assurance will be successfully implemented or that appropriate personnel will be available. We will also need to purchase additional equipment, some of which can take several months or more to procure, setup and validate, and increase our software and computing capacity to meet increased demand. Failure to implement necessary procedures, transition to new processes, hire the necessary personnel, obtain any necessary additional equipment and increase software and computing capacity could result in higher costs of processing tests or inability to meet demand. There can be no assurance that we will be able to perform our testing on a timely basis at a level consistent with demand, or that our efforts to scale our operations, expand our personnel, equipment, software and computing capacities, or implement process enhancements will be successfully implemented and will not negatively affect the quality of test results. In addition, there can be no assurance that we will have adequate space in our laboratory facility to accommodate such required expansion. We are also currently collaborating with third parties in an effort to implement multiplex technology in our laboratory. We may experience difficulties securing a partner for this technology and integrating such technology into our existing laboratory operations, which could affect our ability to meet demand for our testing products. If we encounter difficulty meeting market demand or quality standards, our reputation could be harmed and our future prospects and our business could suffer.
Billing for our testing products is complex, and we must dedicate substantial time and resources to the billing process to be paid for our testing products.
Billing for our testing products is complex, time consuming and expensive. Depending on the billing arrangement and applicable law, we bill various third-party payors, including Medicare and Medicaid, and commercial payors, as well as patients, all of which have different billing requirements. Depending on the billing arrangement and applicable law, we bill various third-party payors, including Medicare and private insurance companies, as well as patients, all of which have different billing requirements. We generally bill third-party payors for our testing products and pursue reimbursement on a case-by-case basis where pricing contracts are not in place. We may also face increased risk in our collection efforts, including long collection cycles and potential delays in claims processing, which could adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Several factors contribute to the complexity of the billing process, including:
differences between the list price for our testing products and the reimbursement rates of third-party payors;
compliance with complex federal and state regulations related to billing Medicare and Medicaid;
disputes among third-party payors as to which party is responsible for payment;
differences in coverage among third-party payors;
the effect of patient deductibles, co-payments or co-insurance;
differences in information and billing requirements among third-party payors;
changes to billing codes used for our testing products;
risk of government audits related to billing;
incorrect or missing billing information; and
the resources required to manage the billing and claims appeals process.
We use standard industry billing codes, known as CPT codes, to bill for our testing products. If these codes were to change, there is risk that errors could be made in the claim adjudication process. Such errors can occur with claims submission, third-party transmission or in the processing of the claim by the payor. Claim adjudication errors may result in a delay in payment processing or a reduction in the amount of the payment received.
As we introduce new testing products, we will need to add new codes to our billing process as well as our financial reporting systems. Failure or delays in effecting these changes in external billing and internal systems and processes could negatively affect our collection rates, revenue and cost of collecting.
Our billing activities require us to implement compliance procedures and oversight, train and monitor our employees, and undertake internal audits to evaluate compliance with applicable laws and regulations as well as internal compliance policies and procedures. Payors also conduct external audits to evaluate payments, which add further complexity to the billing process. If the payor makes an overpayment determination, there is a risk that we
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may be required to return all or some portion of prior payments we have received. Additionally, providers and suppliers must report and return overpayments received from the Medicare and Medicaid programs within 60 days of identification. Failure to identify and return such overpayments exposes the provider or supplier to liability under the federal False Claims Act.
Additionally, from time to time, third-party payors change processes that may affect timely payment. These changes may result in uneven cash flow or impact the timing of revenue recognized with these payors. With respect to payments received from government healthcare programs, factors such as a prolonged government shutdown could cause significant regulatory delays or could result in attempts to reduce payments made to us by federal healthcare programs. With respect to payments received from government programs, factors such as a prolonged government shutdown could cause significant regulatory delays or could result in attempts to reduce payments made to us by federal healthcare programs. In addition, third-party payors may refuse to ultimately make payment if their processes and requirements have not been met on a timely basis. These billing complexities, and the related uncertainty in obtaining payment for our testing products could negatively affect our revenue and cash flow, our ability to achieve profitability, and the consistency and comparability of our results of operations.
In 2022, Noridian posted the calendar year 2023 Medicare Physician Fee Schedule (MPFS), and CLFS, which establishes the reimbursement rates to be paid by Medicare for our jurisdiction for services performed on or after January 1, 2023. We do not expect that PAMA or changes to the PFS will have a significant impact to Medicare reimbursement for AVISE® CTD in 2023 compared to levels experienced in 2022. Revenue from Medicare comprised 39% and 19% of our revenue for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively. Revenue from the sale of our AVISE® CTD testing products comprised 84% and 81% of our revenue for the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively.
We also rely on a third-party provider to provide revenue cycle management software systems for certain processing and collection functions. In the past, we have experienced delays in claims processing as a result of our third-party provider making changes to its invoicing system, as well as not submitting claims to payors within the timeframe required. If claims for our testing products are not submitted to payors on a timely basis, or if we are required to switch to a different systems provider, it could have an adverse effect on our revenue and our business.
Our reliance on third parties requires us to share our trade secrets, which increases the possibility that a competitor will discover them or that our trade secrets will be misappropriated or disclosed.
At times, we share our proprietary technology and confidential information, including trade secrets, with third parties that conduct studies and other services on our behalf. We seek to protect our proprietary technology, in part, by entering into confidentiality agreements, consulting agreements or other similar agreements with our advisors, employees and consultants prior to beginning research or disclosing proprietary information. These agreements typically limit the rights of the third parties to use or disclose our confidential information. Despite the contractual provisions employed when working with third parties, the need to share trade secrets and other confidential information increases the risk that such trade secrets become known by our competitors, are intentionally or inadvertently incorporated into the technology of others or are disclosed or used in violation of these agreements. Given that our proprietary position is based, in part, on our know-how and trade secrets and despite our efforts to protect our trade secrets, a competitor’s discovery of our proprietary technology and confidential information or other unauthorized use or disclosure would impair our competitive position and may have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and prospects.
If we are unable to maintain or expand our sales and marketing force, as needed, to adequately address our customers’ and future partners’ needs, our business may be adversely affected.
We sell our testing products through our own specialized sales force. Our testing products compete in a concentrated specialty market of autoimmune and autoimmune-related diseases, and utilizing a specialized sales force is integral to our strategy. Our testing products compete in a concentrated specialty market, that of autoimmune and autoimmune-related diseases, and utilizing a specialized sales force is integral to our integrated testing and therapeutics strategy. As such, we believe it is necessary to maintain a sales force that includes sales representatives with specific technical backgrounds and industry expertise and expect to continue to evaluate the reach and frequency with rheumatologists, including as we launch our pipeline products. As such, we believe it is necessary to maintain a sales force that includes sales representatives with specific technical backgrounds and industry expertise. We may be required to expand our specialized sales force as our company grows. Training of additional sales representatives can be costly and time consuming, particularly given the level of experience and sophistication we seek in our sales force. If we are unable to effectively retain, train and integrate additional sales representatives, as needed, it may adversely affect our ability to effectively market and sell our testing products. If we are unable to effectively retain, train and integrate additional sales representatives, it may adversely affect our ability to effectively market and sell our testing products. In addition, competition for highly specialized sales personnel is intense, and we may not be able to attract and retain personnel or be able to maintain an efficient and effective sales and marketing force.
Our future sales will depend in large part on our ability to maintain an effective sales force. If we are unsuccessful in this regard, it could negatively impact our revenue growth and potential profitability.
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If we are unable to compete successfully, we may be unable to increase or sustain our revenue or achieve profitability.
Our principal competition for our testing products is traditional methods used by healthcare providers to test patients with CTD-like symptoms. Such traditional methods include testing for a broad range of diagnostic, immunology and chemistry biomarkers, such as ANA and anti-dsDNA and serum complement biomarkers, such as C3 and C4. We also face competition from commercial laboratories, such as Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings, Quest Diagnostics Incorporated, ARUP Laboratories, Inc. Such traditional methods include testing for a broad range of diagnostic, immunology and chemistry biomarkers, such as anti-nuclear antibodies, or ANA, and anti-double-stranded DNA, or anti-dsDNA, and serum complement biomarkers, such as C3 and C4. We also face competition from commercial laboratories, such as Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings, Quest Diagnostics Incorporated, ARUP Laboratories, Inc. and the Mayo Clinic, all of which have existing infrastructures to support the commercialization of diagnostic services. Large, multispecialty group medical clinics, health systems and academic medical university-based clinics may provide in-house clinical laboratories offering autoimmune and autoimmune-related disease testing services. Additionally, we compete against regional clinical laboratories providing testing in the autoimmune and autoimmune-related disease field, including Rheumatology Diagnostics Laboratories, Inc. (acquired by Laboratory Corporation of America in June 2020). Other potential competitors include companies that might develop diagnostic or disease or drug monitoring products, such as Progentec Diagnostics Inc., Scipher Medicine Corporation, Genalyte Inc., Oncimmune plc, DxTerity Diagnostics Inc., AMPEL BioSolutions, and Immunovia AB. In the future, we may also face competition from companies developing new products or technologies.
We believe the principal competitive factors in our target market include: quality and strength of clinical and analytical validation data; confidence in diagnostic results; sales and marketing capabilities; the extent of reimbursement; inclusion in clinical guidelines; cost-effectiveness; and ease of use.
Many of our potential competitors have widespread brand recognition and substantially greater financial, technical and research and development resources and selling and marketing capabilities than we do. Others may develop products with prices lower than ours that could be viewed by rheumatologists and payors as functionally equivalent to our solution or offer solutions at prices designed to promote market penetration, which could force us to lower the list price of our products and affect our ability to achieve profitability. If we are unable to change clinical practice in a meaningful way or compete successfully against current and future competitors, we may be unable to increase market acceptance and sales of our products, which could prevent us from increasing our revenue or achieving profitability and could cause the market price of our common stock to decline.
To compete successfully we must be able to demonstrate, among other things, that our testing products are accurate and cost effective.
Developing new testing products involves a lengthy and complex process, and we may not be able to commercialize on a timely basis, or at all, other testing products we are developing.
We may not be able to develop testing products with the clinical utility necessary to be useful and commercially successful. There are certain products for which a commercial launch would trigger additional payment obligations to licensors of the technology. In these cases, if the economic projections of the product do not outweigh the additional obligations, we may not launch these products. In order to develop and commercialize testing products, we need to:
expend significant funds to conduct substantial research and development;
conduct successful verification, validation and utility studies;
develop and scale our laboratory processes to accommodate different tests;
achieve and maintain required regulatory certifications, including the hiring of appropriately licensed laboratory personnel;
develop and scale our infrastructure to be able to analyze increasingly large amounts of data; and
build the commercial infrastructure to market and sell new testing products.
Our testing product development process involves a high degree of risk and may take several years. Our testing product development efforts may fail for many reasons, including:
failure to identify additional biomarkers to incorporate into our testing products;
failure or sub-optimal performance of the testing product at the research or development stage;
obtaining patient consent inclusive of genetic analysis;
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difficulty in accessing archival patient specimens, especially specimens with known clinical results; or
failure of clinical validation, utility and outcome studies to support the effectiveness of the test.
Typically, few research and development projects result in commercial products, and success in early clinical studies often is not replicated in later studies. At any point, we may abandon development of a testing product candidate or we may be required to expend considerable resources repeating clinical studies, which would adversely affect the timing for generating potential revenue from a new testing product and our ability to invest in other products in our pipeline.
In 2022, we completed the conversion of approximately 8,000 square feet of warehouse space into additional clinical laboratory space and approximately 6,000 square feet of warehouse space into additional research and development facility space. In light of our renewed focus on our flagship product, AVISE CTD, and selective approach to research and development projects, we expect to sublet the converted research and development space to a third party and to continue to use the remainder of our existing laboratory space.
In addition, as we develop testing products, we may have to make significant investments in product development, marketing and selling resources. If a clinical validation study fails to demonstrate the prospectively defined endpoints of the study, we might choose to abandon the development of the testing product or product feature that was the subject of the clinical study, which could harm our business. Additionally, com