Risk Factors Dashboard
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Item 1A. Risk Factors.
Public health issues such as a pandemic or epidemic could harm business and results of operations of the Company.Public health issues such as the global Coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic could harm business and results of operations of the Company.
Demand for our homes is dependent on a variety of macroeconomic factors, such as employment levels, availability of financing for homebuyers, interest rates, consumer confidence and spending, wage growth and inflation, household formations, levels of new and existing homes for sale, cost of land, labor and construction materials, demographic trends and housing demand.Demand for our homes is dependent on a variety of macroeconomic factors, such as employment levels, availability of financing for homebuyers, interest rates, consumer confidence, wage growth, household formations, levels of new and existing homes for sale, cost of land, labor and construction materials, demographic trends and housing demand. These factors, in particular consumer confidence, can be significantly and adversely affected by a variety of factors beyond our control. Specifically, an epidemic, pandemic, or similar public health issue could significantly disrupt us from operating our business in the ordinary course for an extended period, and thereby, along with associated economic and/or consumer confidence instability, have a material adverse impact on our financial position, results of operations and cash flows.
For example, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect the global economy. The effects of the pandemic contributed to disrupting our supply chain, which has resulted in shortages of certain building materials and tightness in the labor market. There is still significant uncertainty as a result of the pandemic and its continuing potential to negatively impact the U.S. economy. The degree to which the pandemic will impact our financial results in the coming periods depends on future developments that are highly uncertain, including whether there are additional outbreaks of COVID-19 and related variants and the actions taken to contain or address the virus. The degree to which the pandemic will impact our financial results in the coming periods depends on future developments that are highly uncertain, including new information that may emerge concerning the severity of the pandemic, whether there are additional outbreaks of COVID-19 and related variants and the actions taken to contain or address the virus. If the pandemic continues to cause significant negative impacts to the U.S. economy and consumer confidence, our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows could be significantly and adversely impacted.
Changes in general economic, real estate and other business conditions may have an adverse effect on the homebuilding and mortgage industries, which could have a negative impact on our business.
The homebuilding industry is cyclical and is significantly affected by changes in industry conditions, the national political environment and general economic conditions such as:
•employment levels;
•availability of financing for homebuyers;
•interest rates;
•consumer confidence and spending;
•wage growth;
•inflation;
•household formations;
•levels of new and existing homes for sale;
•cost of land, labor and construction materials;
•demographic trends; and
•housing demand.
These conditions may exist on a national level or may affect some of the regions or markets in which we operate more than others. When adverse conditions affect any of our larger markets, they could have a proportionately greater impact on us than on some other homebuilding companies.
Changes to monetary policy or other actions by the Federal Reserve could have an adverse effect on interest rates (including mortgage interest rates), equity markets and consumer confidence. During fiscal 2022, in response to increased inflation, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates significantly and has signaled it expects additional future interest rate increases. As a result, mortgage interest rates increased significantly, and we began to see a decrease in housing demand. Such effects could cause and have caused us to experience declines in the market value of our inventory and the demand for our homes, resulting in a negative impact to our financial position, results of operations and cash flows. Such effects could cause us to experience declines in the market value of our inventory and the demand for our homes, resulting in a negative impact to our financial position, results of operations and cash flows.
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An oversupply of alternatives to new homes, including foreclosed homes, homes held for sale or rent by investors and speculators, other existing homes, and rental properties, can also reduce our ability to sell new homes, depress new home prices and reduce our margins on the sale of new homes. High levels of foreclosures and short-sales not only contribute to additional inventory available for sale, but also can reduce appraisal valuations for new homes, potentially resulting in lower sales prices.
Terrorist attacks, acts of war, other acts of violence or threats to national security, and any corresponding response by the United States or others, or related domestic or international instability, may adversely affect general economic conditions or cause a slowdown of the economy.
As a result of the foregoing matters, potential customers may be less willing or able to buy our homes. In the future, our pricing strategies may be limited by market conditions. We may be unable to change the mix of our home offerings, reduce the costs of the homes we build or offer more affordable homes to maintain our gross margins or satisfactorily address changing market conditions in other ways. In addition, cancellations of home sales contracts in backlog may increase as homebuyers choose to not honor their contracts.
Additionally, the factors discussed above may increase our counterparty risk, which may include, among others, banks under our credit facilities and mortgage purchasers who may not be willing or able to perform on obligations to us. To the extent a third-party is unable or unwilling to meet its obligations, our financial position, results of operations and cash flows could be negatively impacted.
Our mortgage operations are closely related to our homebuilding business, as HomeAmerican originates mortgage loans principally to purchasers of the homes we build. Therefore, a decrease in the demand for our homes because of the preceding matters may also adversely affect the financial results of this segment of our business. Furthermore, any adverse changes in the economic conditions discussed previously could increase the default rate on the mortgages we originate, which may adversely affect our ability to sell the mortgages, the pricing we receive upon the sale of mortgages, or our potential exposure to recourse regarding mortgage loan sales.
These challenging conditions are complex and interrelated. We cannot predict their occurrence or severity, nor can we provide assurance that our responses would be successful.
Increased competition levels in the homebuilding and mortgage lending industries could have a negative impact on our homebuilding and mortgage operations.
The homebuilding industry is fragmented and highly competitive. Our homebuilding subsidiaries compete with numerous public and private homebuilders, including a number that are substantially larger than us and may have greater financial resources than we do. Our homebuilding subsidiaries also compete with subdivision developers and land development companies, some of which are themselves homebuilders or affiliates of homebuilders. Homebuilders compete for customers, land, building materials, subcontractor labor and desirable financing. Competition for home orders is based primarily on home sales price, location of property, home style, financing available to prospective homebuyers, quality of homes built, customer service and general reputation in the community, and may vary market-by-market and/or submarket-by-submarket. Additionally, competition within the homebuilding industry can be impacted by an excess supply of new and existing homes available for sale resulting from a number of factors, including, among other things, increases in the number of new home communities, increases in speculative homes available for sale and increases in home foreclosures. Increased competition can result in a decrease in our net new home orders, a decrease in our home sales prices and/or an increase in our home sales incentives in an effort to generate new home sales and maintain homes in backlog until they close. These competitive pressures may negatively impact our financial position, results of operations and cash flows.
Our mortgage lending subsidiary, HomeAmerican, experiences competition from numerous banks and other mortgage bankers and brokers, many of which are larger and may have greater financial resources. As a result, these competitors may be able to offer better pricing and/or mortgage loan terms, more relaxed underwriting criteria and a greater range of products, which could negatively impact the financial position, results of operations and cash flows of our mortgage operations.
If land is not available at reasonable prices or terms, we could be required to scale back our operations in a given market and/or we may operate at lower levels of profitability.
Our operations depend on our homebuilding subsidiaries’ ability to obtain land for the development of our residential communities at reasonable prices and with terms that meet our underwriting criteria. Our ability to obtain land for new residential communities may be adversely affected by changes in the general availability of land, the willingness of land sellers to sell land at reasonable prices, competition for available land, availability of financing to acquire land, zoning, regulations that
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limit housing density, and other market conditions. If the supply of land, and especially finished lots, appropriate for development of residential communities is limited because of these factors, or for any other reason, the number of homes that our homebuilding subsidiaries build and sell may decline. To the extent that we are unable to purchase land timely or enter into new contracts for the purchase of land at reasonable prices, due to the lag time between the time we acquire land and the time we begin selling homes, we may be required to scale back our operations in a given market and/or we may operate at lower levels of profitability. As a result, our financial position, results of operations and cash flows could be negatively impacted.
Supply shortages and other risks related to the demand for skilled labor and building materials could continue to increase costs and delay deliveries.
The residential construction industry experiences price fluctuations and shortages in labor and materials from time to time. Shortages in labor can be due to: competition for labor, work stoppages, labor disputes, shortages in qualified trades people, lack of availability of adequate utility infrastructure and services, or our need to rely on local subcontractors who may not be adequately capitalized or insured. Labor and material shortages can be more severe during periods of strong demand for housing or during periods in which the markets where we operate experience natural disasters that have a significant impact on existing residential and commercial structures. Additionally, we could experience labor shortages as a result of subcontractors going out of business or leaving the residential construction market due to low levels of housing production and volumes. Pricing for labor and materials can be affected by the factors discussed above, changes in energy prices, and various other national, regional and local economic factors. In addition, environmental and other regulations and import tariffs and trade restrictions have had, and in the future could continue to have, an adverse impact on the cost of certain raw materials such as lumber. Recalls of materials driven by manufacturing defects can drive shortages in materials and delay the delivery of homes. Any of these circumstances could give rise to delays in the start or completion of our residential communities, increase the cost of developing one or more of our residential communities and/or increase the construction cost of our homes. During fiscal 2021 and 2022, we have experienced multiple disruptions in our supply chain resulting in shortages of certain building materials and increased demand in the labor market, which has caused our land development and construction cycle times to lengthen and the costs of building materials and labor to increase.
We generally are unable to pass on increases in construction costs on build-to-order homes to customers who have already entered into sales contracts, as those sales contracts fix the price of the homes at the time the contracts are signed, which generally is in advance of the construction of the home. If we continue to see an increase in the number of spec homes due to cancellation activity and spec construction starts, we may see an increase in our ability to pass on increases in construction costs to customers should market conditions permit. To the extent that market conditions prevent the recovery of increased costs, including, among other things, subcontracted labor, finished lots, building materials, and other resources, through higher selling prices, our financial position, cash flows and operating results, including our gross margin from home sales, could be negatively impacted.
If mortgage interest rates continue to rise, if down payment requirements are increased, if loan limits are decreased, or if mortgage financing otherwise becomes less available, it could adversely affect our business.If mortgage interest rates rise, if down payment requirements are increased, if loan limits are decreased, or if mortgage financing otherwise becomes less available, it could adversely affect our business.
Mortgage liquidity influenced by governmental entities like the FHA, VA, USDA and Ginnie Mae or government-sponsored enterprises (“GSEs”) like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to be an important factor in marketing our homes. Financial losses or other factors may limit, restrict or otherwise curtail their ability or willingness to insure mortgage loans, offer insurance at rates and on terms that are not prohibitive, or purchase mortgage loans. Should this occur, it may negatively impact the availability of mortgage financing and our sales of new homes.
We believe that the liquidity provided by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae to the mortgage industry has been very important to the housing market. Any reduction in the availability of the liquidity provided by these institutions could adversely affect interest rates, mortgage availability and our sales of new homes and mortgage loans.
Loans sold to or insured by the GSEs are subject to various loan limits. Decreases in these loan limits may require homebuyers to make larger down payments or obtain more restrictive non-conforming or “jumbo” mortgages, which could adversely impact on our financial position, results of operations and cash flows.
Even if potential customers do not need financing, changes in the availability of mortgage products may make it harder for them to sell their current homes to potential buyers who need financing.
If interest rates continue to increase, the costs of owning a home may continue to be affected and could result in further reductions in the demand for our homes.If interest rates increase, the costs of owning a home may be affected and could result in further reductions in the demand for our homes. During fiscal 2022, the increase in mortgage interest rates had a significant impact on the demand for our homes.
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Changes to tax laws, incentives or credits currently available to our customers may negatively impact our business.
Many homeowners receive substantial tax benefits in the form of tax deductions against their personal taxable income for mortgage interest and property tax payments and the loss or reduction of these deductions could affect homeowners’ net cost of owning a home. Significant changes to existing tax laws, such as the ability to deduct mortgage interest and real property taxes, may result in an increase in the total cost of home ownership and may make the purchase of a home less attractive to buyers. This could adversely impact demand for and/or sales prices of new homes, which would have a negative impact on our business.
A decline in the market value of our homes or carrying value of our land could continue to have a negative impact on our business.
Our homebuilding subsidiaries acquire land for the replacement of land inventory and/or expansion within our current markets and may, from time to time, purchase land for expansion into new markets. The fair value of our land and land under development inventory and housing completed or under construction inventory depends on market conditions. Factors that can impact our determination of the fair value of our inventory primarily include home sale prices, levels of home sale incentives and home construction and land costs. Our home sale prices and/or levels of home sale incentives can be impacted by, among other things, uncertainty in the homebuilding and mortgage industries or the United States/global economy overall, decreased demand for new homes, decreased home prices offered by our competitors, home foreclosure and short-sale levels, decreased ability of our homebuyers to obtain suitable mortgage loan financing and high levels of home order cancellations. Under such circumstances, we may be required to record impairments of our inventory. Any such inventory impairments would have a negative impact on our financial position and results of operations. During fiscal 2022, the increase in mortgage interest rates had a significant impact on the homebuilding industry causing home sale prices to decrease and home sale incentives to increase across the industry. This has resulted in inventory impairments in certain of our communities due to the decline in the market value of our housing completed or under construction and land and land under development inventory.
Natural disasters could cause an increase in home construction costs, as well as delays, and could negatively impact our business.
The climates and geology of many of the markets in which we operate present increased risks of natural disasters. To the extent that hurricanes, severe storms, earthquakes, droughts, floods, heavy or prolonged precipitation, wildfires or other natural disasters or similar events occur, the financial position, results of operations and cash flows of our business may be negatively impacted.
Changes in energy prices or regulations may have an adverse effect on our cost of building homes.
Some of the markets in which we operate are impacted by regulations related to energy, such as setbacks required from oil / gas drilling operations or restrictions on the use of land. To the extent that these regulations are modified, the value of land we already own or the availability of land we are looking to purchase may decline, which may adversely impact the financial position, results of operations and cash flows of our business. Furthermore, pricing offered by our suppliers and subcontractors can be adversely affected by increases in various energy costs resulting in a negative impact to our financial position, results of operations and cash flows of our business.
We have financial needs that we meet through the capital markets, including the debt and secondary mortgage markets, and disruptions in these markets could have an adverse impact on the results of our business.
We have financial needs that we meet through the capital markets, including the debt and secondary mortgage markets. Our requirements for additional capital, whether to finance operations or to service or refinance our existing indebtedness, fluctuate as market conditions and our financial performance and operations change. We cannot provide assurance that we will maintain cash reserves and generate sufficient cash flow from operations in an amount to enable us to service our debt or to fund other liquidity needs.
The availability of additional capital, whether from private capital sources or the public capital markets, fluctuates as our financial condition and market conditions in general change. There may be times when the private capital markets and the public debt or equity markets lack sufficient liquidity or when our securities cannot be sold at attractive prices, in which case we would not be able to access capital from these sources. Additionally, any reduction in our credit ratings and/or a weakening of our financial condition, could adversely affect our ability to obtain necessary funds. Even if financing is available, it could be costly or have other adverse consequences.
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In addition, the sources and terms and conditions of our mortgage repurchase facility are subject to change. These changes may impact, among other things, availability of capital, cost of borrowings, collateral requirements and collateral advance rates.
Our business is subject to numerous federal, state and local laws and regulations concerning land development, construction of homes, sales, mortgage lending, environmental and other aspects of our business. These laws and regulations could give rise to additional liabilities or expenditures, or restrictions on our business.
Our operations are subject to continuing compliance requirements mandated by applicable federal, state and local statutes, ordinances, rules and regulations, including zoning and land use ordinances, building, plumbing and electrical codes, contractors’ licensing laws, state insurance laws, federal and state human resources laws and regulations, and health and safety laws and regulations.10Table of ContentsOur operations are subject to continuing compliance requirements mandated by applicable federal, state and local statutes, ordinances, rules and regulations, including zoning and land use ordinances, building, plumbing and electrical codes, contractors’ licensing laws, state insurance laws, federal and state human resources laws and regulations, and health and safety laws and regulations. Various localities in which we operate have imposed (or may impose in the future) fees on developers to fund schools, road improvements and low and moderate-income housing.
Availability of and costs related to permit, water/sewer tap, and impact fees can impact our homebuilding operations. From time to time, various municipalities in which our homebuilding subsidiaries operate restrict or place moratoria on the availability of utilities, including water and sewer taps. Additionally, certain jurisdictions in which our homebuilding subsidiaries operate have proposed or enacted “slow growth” or “no growth” initiatives and other measures that may restrict the number of building permits available in any given year. These initiatives or other similar measures could reduce our ability to open new subdivisions and build and sell homes in the affected markets. The availability issues previously discussed and any increases in costs of these fees may negatively impact our financial position, results of operations and cash flows.
Our homebuilding operations also are affected by regulations pertaining to availability of water, municipal sewage treatment capacity, land use, dust controls, oil and gas operations, building materials, population density and preservation of endangered species, natural terrain and vegetation.
We are subject to growing local, state and federal statutes, ordinances, rules and regulations concerning the protection of public health and the environment. These include regulating the emission or discharge of materials into the environment such as greenhouse gas emissions, storm water runoff, the handling, use, storage and disposal of hazardous substances, and impacts to wetlands and other sensitive environments. These restrictions and requirements could increase our operating costs and require additional capital investment, which could negatively impact our financial position, results of operations and cash flows. Further, we have extensive operations in the western United States, where some of the most extensive environmental laws and building construction standards in the country have been enacted. We believe we are in compliance in all material respects with existing governmental environment restrictions, standards and regulations applicable to our business, and such compliance has not had a material impact on our business. Given the emerging and rapid changes of environmental laws and other matters that may arise that are not currently known, we cannot predict our future exposure, and our future costs to achieve compliance or remedy potential violations could be significant.
The particular environmental laws and regulations that apply to any given homebuilding project vary greatly according to a particular site’s location, the site’s environmental conditions and the present and former uses. These environmental laws may result in project delays, cause us to incur substantial compliance and other costs and/or prohibit or severely restrict homebuilding activity in certain environmentally sensitive locations. Environmental laws and regulations may also have a negative impact on the availability and price of certain raw materials, such as lumber.
Our revolving credit facility contains representations regarding anti-corruption and sanctions laws, a violation of which could result in an event of default.
We also are subject to rules and regulations with respect to originating, processing, selling and servicing mortgage loans, which, among other things: prohibit discrimination and establish underwriting guidelines; provide for audits and inspections; require appraisals and/or credit reports on prospective borrowers and disclosure of certain information concerning credit and settlement costs; establish maximum loan amounts; prohibit predatory lending practices; and regulate the referral of business to affiliated entities.
The regulatory environment for mortgage lending is complex and ever changing and has led to an increase in the number of audits and examinations in the industry. These examinations can include consumer lending practices, sales of mortgages to financial institutions and other investors and the practices in the financial services segments of homebuilding companies. New rules and regulations or revised interpretations of existing rules and regulations applicable to our mortgage lending operations could result in more stringent compliance standards, which may substantially increase costs of compliance.
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In the ordinary course of business, we are required to obtain surety bonds, the unavailability of which could adversely affect our business.
As is customary in the homebuilding industry, we often are required to provide surety bonds to secure our performance under construction contracts, development agreements and other arrangements. Our ability to obtain surety bonds primarily depends upon our credit rating, capitalization, working capital, past performance, management expertise and certain external factors, including the overall capacity of the surety market and the underwriting practices of surety bond issuers. The ability to obtain surety bonds also can be impacted by the willingness of insurance companies to issue surety bonds. The ability to 11Table of Contentsobtain surety bonds also can be impacted by the willingness of insurance companies to issue surety bonds. If we are unable to obtain surety bonds when required, our financial position, results of operations and cash flows could be adversely impacted.
Product liability litigation and warranty claims that arise in the ordinary course of business may be costly.
As a homebuilder, we are subject to construction defect and home warranty claims, as well as claims associated with the sale and financing of our homes arising in the ordinary course of business. These types of claims can be costly. The costs of insuring against or directly paying for construction defect and product liability claims can be high and the amount of coverage offered by insurance companies may be limited. If we are not able to obtain adequate insurance against these claims, we may incur additional expenses that would have a negative impact on our results of operations in future reporting periods. Additionally, changes in the facts and circumstances of our pending litigation matters could have a material impact on our financial position, results of operations and cash flows.
Repurchase requirements associated with HomeAmerican’s sale of mortgage loans, could negatively impact our business.
We are subject to risks associated with mortgage loans, including conventional mortgage loans, FHA and VA mortgage loans, second mortgage loans, high loan-to-value mortgage loans and jumbo mortgage loans (mortgage loans with principal balances that exceed various thresholds in our markets). These risks may include, among other things, compliance with mortgage loan underwriting criteria and the associated homebuyers’ performance, which could require HomeAmerican to repurchase certain of those mortgage loans or provide indemnification. Repurchased mortgage loans and/or the settlement of claims associated with such loans could have a negative impact on HomeAmerican’s financial position, results of operations and cash flows.
Because of the seasonal nature of our business, our quarterly operating results can fluctuate.
We may experience noticeable seasonality and quarter-to-quarter variability in homebuilding activity levels. In general, the number of homes delivered and the associated home sale revenues increase during the third and fourth quarters, compared with the first and second quarters. We believe that this type of seasonality reflects the historical tendency of homebuyers to purchase new homes in the spring and summer with deliveries scheduled in the fall or winter, as well as the scheduling of construction to accommodate seasonal weather conditions in certain markets.
We are dependent on the services of key employees, and the loss of their services could hurt our business.
Although we believe that we have made provision for adequately staffing current operations, because of competition for experienced homebuilding industry personnel, retaining our skilled people is an important area of focus. Our future success depends, in part, on our ability to attract, train and retain skilled personnel. If we are unable to retain our key employees or attract, train and retain other skilled personnel in the future, it could have an adverse impact on our financial position, results of operations and cash flows.
The interests of certain controlling shareholders may be adverse to other investors
Larry A. Mizel and David D. Mandarich beneficially own, directly or indirectly through their affiliates, in the aggregate, approximately 22% of our common stock. To the extent they and their affiliates vote their shares in the same manner, their combined stock ownership may effectively give them the power to influence the election of members of our board of directors and other matters reserved for our shareholders.
Information technology failures and cybersecurity breaches could harm our business.Information technology failures and data security breaches could harm our business.
We use information technology and other computer resources to carry out important operational activities and to maintain our business records. These information technology systems are dependent upon electronic systems and other aspects of the internet infrastructure. A material breach in the security of our information technology systems or other data security controls could result in third parties obtaining or corrupting customer, employee or company data. To date, we have not had a
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material breach of data security, however such occurrences could have a material and adverse effect on our financial position, results of operations and cash flows.
Item 1B. Unresolved Staff Comments.
None.
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