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Risk Factors - AGM

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Item 1A.Risk Factors

Our business activities, financial performance, and results of operations are, by their nature, subject to risks and uncertainties, including those related to the agricultural industry, infrastructure industries, access to the capital markets, the political and regulatory environment, the level of prevailing interest rates, and overall market conditions. The following risk factors should be considered along with MD&A in Item 7 of this report, including the risks and uncertainties described in the "Forward-Looking Statements" section.

Credit and Counterparty Risk

Economic stress caused by disruptive global events, such as geopolitical instability, and natural or human-caused disasters, may materially and adversely affect our business, operations, operating results, financial condition, liquidity, or capital levels and may heighten other risk factors in this report.

This includes supply chain disruptions that prevent producers from accessing critical resources or that inhibit exports, inflationary effects that put downward pressure on demand for agricultural products or that may increase production expenses, and higher interest rates that may increase the risk that our borrowers may default on their loans. Depending on the severity and frequency of these types of disruptive events, as well as the capability of governments and global markets to effectively mitigate the resulting negative effects, a prolonged period of economic stress, including a broader economic downturn or recession, could ensue from these events, which could increase stress on our borrowers and their ability to remain profitable and make payments on their loans.

Unless we have transferred the credit risk to a third party, we assume the ultimate credit risk of borrower defaults on our agricultural mortgage and infrastructure loan assets, and our earnings, which come from net interest income, guarantee fees, and commitment fees on those assets, depend significantly on their performance. The occurrence of these disruptive events and resulting negative economic effects may also heighten other risk factors described in this report.

Weather-related events or other natural or environmental disasters could have a material adverse effect on our business, operating results, or financial condition.

In addition to the general risks posed by adverse weather conditions, our exposure to credit risk and the market value of loan collateral is potentially subject to risks associated with farmers and ranchers facing increasing, (in both frequency and severity), weather incidents. The U.S. experienced 23 separate billion-

dollar weather disasters in 2025, surpassed only by the 27 billion-dollar weather disasters in 2024 and the 28 billion-dollar weather disasters in 2023, both of which significantly exceeded the previous high set in 2020 (which had 22 billion-dollar weather disasters) as the highest level in the more than 40 years tracked by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Many climatologists predict increases in average temperatures, more extreme temperatures, and increases in volatile weather over time. These physical changes may prompt changes in regulations or consumer preferences, which in turn could have negative consequences for the business models of borrowers, such as increasing costs, reducing the value of assets, and increasing operating expenses. Extended periods of drought and dryness can reduce agricultural productivity, cause lasting damage to permanent crops like fruit and tree nuts, and result in producers leaving some fields fallow due to lack of water.

Political and other external factors outside of our or borrowers' control may impair borrowers' profitability and ability to repay their loans in our portfolio, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition, results of operations, liquidity, or capital levels.

Changes in U.S. trade policies (including tariffs and trade restrictions), tax policies, environmental regulations, and immigration laws could result in significant impacts on agricultural producers and the broader agricultural sector, as well as the infrastructure sector. These changes could lead to both favorable and unfavorable conditions, influencing trade dynamics, the strength of the U.S. dollar, labor costs and availability, and regulatory frameworks. Infrastructure borrowers (particularly those involved in renewable energy projects) may experience delays in completing current projects or future investments in renewable energy and battery storage projects as well as deployment of fiber and broadband infrastructure in rural areas. The agricultural and infrastructure sectors may experience varying degrees of disruption and adaptation in response to political developments and these evolving policies, and these changes could increase the uncertainty and volatility of profitability in the agriculture and infrastructure sectors in the near-term.

Other external factors beyond our or borrowers' control could impair borrowers' profitability, such as volatility in demand for agricultural products or electricity in rural areas; variability in borrowers' input costs; increased competition among producers due to oversupply or available alternatives; and adverse changes in interest rates and land values.

A decline in the value of collateral securing loans in our portfolio or a decline in the value of our borrowers could increase the probability of loss in the event of default, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition, results of operations, liquidity, or capital levels.

Specialized or highly improved collateral, such as storage and processing facilities, permanent plantings, rural utilities, broadband, and renewable energy facilities, increase the risk of undercollateralization in a default scenario because producers requiring specialized or highly improved collateral are generally less

able to adapt their operations or switch functional production when faced with adverse conditions. Highly improved properties also face higher risk of loss in a default scenario, as the pool of potential purchasers in a sale or foreclosure action may be smaller for a highly improved property than for a property that is adaptable to multiple uses. External market factors outside of the borrower's control may cause stress in the related industry, such as decrease in market demand, disruptions in supply chain, geopolitical or regulatory action, or increased market competition. A borrower's management decisions, such as poorly executed acquisitions or growth strategies or inability to adapt to changing market conditions, may also adversely affect that borrower's ability to repay its loan. In these scenarios, the borrower may experience downward pressure on cash flows and liquidity, which not only may contribute to an increased risk of default, but also could decrease the borrower's enterprise value. If losses caused by declines in collateral value or borrower enterprise value occur across a large number of loans, or across loans with large principal balances in the aggregate, this could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition, results of operations, liquidity, or capital levels.

Widespread weakening in the financial condition of borrowers within a particular geographic region that produce particular commodities or rely on particular collateral, that engage in processes or production that depend on a fluid supply chain, or that produce or provide a specialized infrastructure service or product could negatively affect our financial condition if sufficient diversity in these areas does not successfully mitigate concentration risk.

Our exposure to credit risk may also increase due to concentrated exposure to a particular borrower or counterparty. Taking possession of the loan collateral upon a default by the AgVantage counterparty could also result in higher current expected credit losses for our loans held on balance sheet, as well as increased capital requirements. As of December 31, 2025, $7.6 billion of the $8.4 billion of AgVantage securities outstanding had been issued by three counterparties. A default by any of these counterparties could have a significant adverse effect on Farmer Mac's business, operating results, and financial condition.

Our exposure to credit risk may also increase due to concentrated exposure to one or more investment types or counterparties in the investment portfolio we maintain for liquidity. This investment portfolio consists primarily of cash and cash equivalents, U.S. Treasury securities, investment securities guaranteed by U.S. Government agencies and GSEs, and asset-backed securities backed primarily by U.S. Government-guaranteed loans.

Our Guaranteed Securities and LTSPCs expose us to significant contingent liabilities, and our ability to fulfill our obligations under our guarantees and LTSPCs may be limited.

If this were to occur, the funds available for payment on these guarantees and LTSPCs could be substantially less than the aggregate amount of the corresponding liabilities. See MD&A—Risk Management—Credit Risk – Loans and Guarantees for more information on our management of credit risk.

As of December 31, 2025, the aggregate notional

balance of our cleared swaps was $19.4 billion, and the aggregate notional balance of our non-cleared swaps was $6.0 billion.

Strategic and Business Risk

Our business, operating results, financial condition, and capital levels may be materially and adversely affected by external factors that may affect the demand for our secondary market, the price or marketability of our products, or our ability to offer our products and services.

Our business, operating results, financial condition, and capital levels may be materially and adversely affected by external factors that may affect the price or marketability of our products and services or our ability to offer our products and services, including, but not limited to:

•disruptions in the debt or equity capital markets;

•competitive pressures in our loan purchase and guarantee activities or in the issuance of our debt securities;

•changes in interest rates that may increase our funding costs;

•market or customer perception of our reputation;

•legislative or regulatory developments adversely affecting our ability to offer new products, the ability or motivation of lenders to participate in our lines of business, or the cost of related corporate activities;

•reduced demand for agricultural real estate loans or infrastructure loans due to regional, domestic, or global economic conditions; and

•expanded funding alternatives available to agricultural and infrastructure borrowers.

Our ability to operate our business, meet our obligations, generate asset volume growth, and fulfill our statutory mission depends on our continued access to the U.S. financial markets at favorable rates and terms to remain adequately capitalized through the issuance of equity and with adequate access to liquidity through the issuance of debt securities. If we are unable to access the U.S. financial markets to issue equity or debt securities at favorable rates and terms, our business, operating results, liquidity, or financial condition could be adversely affected.

We conduct a significant portion of our business with a few business counterparties. In 2025, ten institutions generated approximately 55% of loan purchase volume in the Agricultural Finance line of business. Between December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2025, the outstanding balance of our AgVantage

securities decreased by approximately $0.1 billion.

We invest significant time and resources in developing and marketing new products and services. Initial timetables for the introduction and development of new products or services may not be achieved, and profitability targets may not prove feasible. External factors, such as compliance with laws and regulations, competitive alternatives, and shifting consumer preferences, may also impact the successful implementation of a new product or service. New products and services may require new operational processes, which often require new internal controls to manage new risks that these new processes present.

Operational Risk

The inadequacy or failure of our operational systems, cybersecurity program, internal controls or processes, or infrastructure, or those of third parties, could have a material adverse effect on our business, operating results, or financial condition.

Operational risk includes the risk of loss resulting from:

•inadequate or failed internal processes, systems, cybersecurity program, or infrastructure;

•inability to successfully implement enhancements to any of these or migrate to new systems or infrastructure;

•any cybersecurity incident or compromise of our information systems or security measures (including of our third parties), or the unauthorized access and/or acquisition of data;

•failed execution of system implementations and upgrades;

•human error, malfeasance, or other misconduct;

•undetected or unknown errors, defects, or vulnerabilities in third party software or cybersecurity

incidents related to third party software;

•inadequate or failed internal controls or processes to detect or prevent fraud or other violations of law or regulations; or

•external events, including a disruption involving physical site access, catastrophic events, natural disasters, terrorist activities, or disease pandemics.

We rely on business processes that largely depend on people, technology, and the use of complex systems and models to manage our business, process a high volume of daily transactions, and generate the records on which our financial statements are based.

The potential for operational risk exposure also exists as a result of our interactions with, and reliance on, third parties and we are aware of cybersecurity incidents involving third parties in the past. Although we have not experienced a material loss due to a breach of third party systems, unauthorized access to a third party service provider's information technology assets or data may significantly impact our operations in the same manner as incidents on our own systems.

Our internal loan servicing function and reliance on third-party servicers exposes us to operational risks that could adversely affect our business, operating results, or financial condition.

Effective and reliable loan servicing is essential for us to successfully operate our business. We service a sizable portion of our Agricultural Finance mortgage loan and USDA Securities portfolios, as well as eligible agricultural mortgage loans that are held by an unrelated third party. We also continue to rely on experienced third-party servicers to service the portion of our Agricultural Finance mortgage loan portfolio that we do not service directly.

A deficiency, failure, interruption, or breach in our or our service providers' technology and information systems, infrastructure, or cybersecurity program, including the occurrence of a cybersecurity incident, could adversely affect our business, operating results, or financial condition.

To conduct and manage our business operations, we rely heavily on technology and information systems, including from third parties, for the secure collection, processing, transmission, and storage of confidential, proprietary, and personal information in our information systems (and those of third parties). These technology and information systems encompass an integrated set of hardware, software, infrastructure, and personnel organized to facilitate our planning, control, coordination, operations, and decision-making processes. Risks to our information systems and data as a result of cybersecurity attacks has increased as the importance and complexity of our technology and information systems has increased, and as new technologies are developed that are used by us, our customers, and our service providers to support our business and operations. These threats come from a variety of different sources, including cyber-attacks, computer viruses, malware, exploits of system and network vulnerabilities, human error, phishing, ransomware, and distributed denial of service attacks. We are not always able to prevent or recognize attacks, our existing cybersecurity defenses may not be sufficient to detect attacks in a timely manner or to fully investigate an attack, and we may be unable to implement effective preventive measures or proactively address these threats until after a cybersecurity incident has been discovered. We also may have limited or no control over our service providers' handling of cybersecurity incidents, including their recognition and prevention practices.

Our current information security program with cybersecurity procedures, policies, training, practices, and controls, may not be sufficient to prevent unauthorized access to our information technology assets or data, which could lead to a significant disruption to business operations; unauthorized access to or acquisition, destruction, alteration, release, theft, or loss of confidential, proprietary, or personal data; fraud (on us and/or our customers); extortion; financial and economic loss or costs; errors in our financial statements; impairment of liquidity; harm to employees, customers, or vendors; liability or service interruptions to our customers; loss of customers or vendors; violation of data protection laws and other litigation and legal risk; increased regulatory or legislative scrutiny; or reputational damage. Even when an attempted cybersecurity attack or other security breach is successfully avoided or thwarted, we may need to expend substantial resources in doing so, may be required to take actions that could adversely affect customer satisfaction or behavior, or may be exposed to reputational damage. We also could be subject to litigation and government enforcement actions as a result of any failure in our procedures, policies, practices, and controls.

Failure by our third-party loan servicers, third-party applications, information systems providers (including artificial intelligence systems), and other service providers to protect confidential

information from unauthorized access and dissemination could have a negative effect on our business, operating results, or financial condition.

We rely on third parties, including loan servicers, information systems providers, software-as-a-service (SaaS) providers, cloud computing service providers, law firms, and other service providers, to perform various functions that support our business and operations. We also may have limited or no control over third parties handling of cybersecurity incidents, including their recognition and prevention practices. We are aware of cybersecurity incidents involving our third party service providers in the past. Although we have not experienced a material loss of data or disruption of our operations due to a breach of third party systems, unauthorized access to a third party service provider's information technology assets or data may significantly impact our operations in the same manner as incidents on our own systems.

We rely upon a variety of third-party applications, services, and tools that we do not develop, including artificial intelligence systems and cloud-based platforms and related data centers, to host data and support and operate certain aspects of our services and business operations. The effective adoption, integration, and leveraging of existing and emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence and machine learning systems into our operations, presents operational and business risks, including system failures, inaccuracies with artificial intelligence outputs, and the investment of time and resources to develop and implement successful artificial intelligence solutions in a rapidly changing competitive market.

If our management of risk based on model assumptions and output is not effective, our business, operating results, financial condition, or capital levels could be materially adversely affected.

We apply statistical and other tools to these observations to quantify our risks. These tools and metrics may fail to predict future or unanticipated risks or may not be effective in mitigating our risk exposure in all economic market environments or against all types of risk, which could expose us to material unanticipated losses.

Market Risk

We are exposed to interest rate risk that could materially and adversely affect our operating results or financial condition.

However, the ability of borrowers to prepay their loans before the scheduled maturities increases the likelihood of asset and liability cash flow mismatches. Conversely, if assets repay more slowly than anticipated and the associated debt issued to fund the assets must be reissued at a higher interest rate, our earnings could be adversely affected. See MD&A—Risk Management—Interest Rate Risk for more information on our management of interest rate risk.

We enter into financial derivatives transactions to hedge interest rate risks inherent in our business and we carry our financial derivatives at fair value in our consolidated financial statements. In 2025 and 2024, we recorded losses of $1.9 million and gains of $3.3 million, respectively, from changes in the fair value of our financial derivatives as a result of movements in interest rates during those years. We recorded gains of

$6.8 million and $11.5 million in 2025 and 2024, respectively, related to ineffectiveness in hedge accounting relationships.

Changes in interest rates have required, and in the future may require, that we post cash or investment securities to collateralize our derivative exposures due to corresponding changes in the fair market values of these derivatives.

Financial Risk

Incorrect estimates and assumptions by management in preparing financial statements could adversely affect our business, operating results, reported assets and liabilities, financial condition, reputation, or capital levels.

Our accounting policies and methods are fundamental to how we record and report our financial condition and results of operations. These financial instruments measured with significant unobservable inputs represented 19.1% of total assets and 49.4% of financial instruments measured at fair value as of December 31, 2025. See MD&A—Critical Accounting Estimates for more information about fair value measurement.

Certain securities we own do not have well-established secondary trading markets, making it more difficult to estimate current fair values for those securities. If we decide to sell securities in our investment portfolio, the price ultimately realized will depend on the demand and liquidity in the market at the time of sale, which could be significantly less than our

fair value estimates.

Regulatory and Compliance Risk

We are a GSE that may be materially and adversely affected by legislative or political developments.

For example, five members of our board of directors serve at the pleasure of the President of the United States. Also, the organization and operation of the FCA could be affected by efforts to consolidate or otherwise reorganize federal financial regulatory agencies. See Business—Government Regulation of Farmer Mac for more information about the rules and regulations governing our activities.

We and many of our business counterparties are subject to comprehensive government regulation, and changes to those laws and regulations could adversely affect our business, operating results, reputation, or financial condition.

We were established under a statutory Charter that the U.S. Congress may amend at any time and we are regulated by various government agencies, including the FCA and the SEC. Future legislative or regulatory actions affecting our statutory Charter or our business activities, including increased regulatory supervision, and any required changes to our business or operations resulting from such actions, could result in financial loss or otherwise reduce our profitability, subject us to more compliance and other costs, limit our product offerings or our ability to pursue business opportunities in which we might otherwise

consider engaging, curtail our current business activities, affect the value of assets that we hold, or otherwise adversely affect our business, results of operations, reputation, or financial condition.

The legal and regulatory environment related to data privacy and cybersecurity is constantly changing. Privacy and cybersecurity are currently areas of considerable legislative and regulatory attention, with new or modified laws, regulations, rules, and standards being frequently adopted and potentially subject to divergent interpretation or application in different jurisdictions in a manner that may create inconsistent or conflicting requirements for businesses. The uncertainty and compliance risks created by these legislative and regulatory developments are compounded by the rapid pace of technology development, such as artificial intelligence and advances in data science, that affect the use or security of data, including personal information. Privacy and cybersecurity laws and regulations often impose strict requirements on the collection, storage, handling, use, disclosure, transfer, security, and other processing of personal information. These laws and regulations may increase our compliance costs and require changes to our business and operations. An actual or perceived failure by us, lenders, servicers, vendors, service providers, counterparties, or other third parties to comply with privacy, data protection, and information security laws, regulations, standards, policies, and contractual obligations could result in legal liabilities, fines, regulatory action, and reputational harm that have a material adverse impact on our business, financial results, and financial condition.

" Factors that could adversely affect the adequacy of our capital levels in the future, and which may be beyond our control, include:

•credit losses;

•adverse changes in interest rates or credit spreads;

•legislative or regulatory actions that increase our capital requirements; and

•changes in GAAP or regulatory capital framework as set forth by our principal regulatory agency, FCA.

Other Risks

Our ability to attract and retain motivated and qualified employees is critical to the success of our business, and significant or sustained disruption in the continuity of our employees or executive leaders may materially adversely affect our business performance, operations, financial condition, or reputation.

We rely on our employees' breadth and depth of knowledge of our company and related industries to run our business operations successfully.

For more information about Farmer Mac's risk management, see "MD&A—Risk Management" in Item 7 of this report.

Item 1B.Unresolved Staff Comments

None.

Cybersecurity

Risk Management and Strategy

We recognize the importance of assessing, identifying, and managing risks associated with cybersecurity threats. As part of this process, appropriate personnel collaborate with subject matter specialists, as necessary, to gather information to identify and assess material cybersecurity threat risks, their severity, and potential mitigations.

Our approach includes:

•an enterprise risk management program that includes an annual cybersecurity risk assessment and management and is periodically refreshed;

•security reviews designed to identify risks from many new features, software, and vendors, including a security operations center to monitor our systems;

•a team of trained and experienced security professionals to investigate and remediate cybersecurity incidents;

•regular cybersecurity training for all employees and network users to raise and maintain awareness of cybersecurity risks and best practices;

•a vulnerability management program designed to identify vulnerabilities in our systems and software;

•regular cybersecurity testing, including third-party penetration testing on a periodic basis to allow security researchers to help identify vulnerabilities in our systems before they mature into real-world cybersecurity threats;

•a third-party service provider risk management program designed to identify and mitigate risks associated with third-party vendors and business partners, which includes pre-engagement diligence, risk assessments, contractual security and notification provisions, and ongoing monitoring, as appropriate;

•a threat intelligence program designed to model and research potential cybersecurity threat actors to identify vulnerabilities and anticipate attack vectors before they are exploited;

•cybersecurity controls designed to segment access to systems and to limit access to sensitive data, which controls are tested and updated regularly;

•patch management controls aimed at reducing system vulnerabilities; and

•a generative artificial intelligence policy that describes how users may utilize generative artificial intelligence tools in alignment with our values, ethical standards, and legal requirements, while also safeguarding sensitive information.

These processes vary in maturity across the business and we work continually to improve them.

That program includes processes to triage, assess severity for, escalate, contain, investigate, and remediate any cybersecurity incident, as well as to comply with any applicable legal obligations (including to preserve evidence) and to mitigate brand and reputational damage.

Prior cybersecurity incidents have not materially affected our business strategy, results of operations, or financial condition. Those disclosures are incorporated by reference in this section.

Governance

Our board of directors is actively involved in overseeing our cybersecurity risk management. At least once a year, the full board of directors meets with our Chief Information Security Officer (“CISO”) to discuss and approve our programs and policies related to cybersecurity and risk initiatives and considers them closely both from a risk management perspective and as part of our business strategy.

The board has created a dedicated cybersecurity subcommittee of the board's enterprise risk committee to oversee our cybersecurity programs and practices, including the identification and mitigation of security

and privacy risks. The cybersecurity subcommittee consists of three members of the enterprise risk committee. The materials provided to the cybersecurity subcommittee and discussed in the meetings may include updates about cybersecurity risks, controls, and assessments, including those from third parties. At each regular quarterly meeting of the board enterprise risk committee, the cybersecurity subcommittee reviews a summary of the information discussed in the most recent cybersecurity subcommittee meetings.

The CISO manages our cybersecurity program, which aligns to industry standards and is reviewed by the cybersecurity subcommittee and approved by the board enterprise risk committee annually, and which includes the identification, evaluation, and prioritization of security risks, as well as our response to security incidents. The CISO has more than 20 years of experience in cybersecurity and information technology and holds a Master’s degree in Business Administration with a focus on Information Technology. The CISO also holds a Certified Information Security Manager ("CISM") certification, which is an advanced certification indicating that an individual possesses the knowledge and experience required to develop and manage an enterprise information security program. The CISO reports to our Executive Vice President – Chief Risk Officer, who in turn reports to the Chief Executive Officer.

The participants in these meetings also discuss their management of, and participation in, the cybersecurity risk management and strategy processes described in this report, including the operation of our incident response plan.

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