Kalshi has reported 8,929 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will the minimum SP500 value reach 4500.01 by Jan 1, 2026?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.
The market currently is implying a 5% chance for "4,500 or below", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 5% probability.
If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting || Open Date || and ending on Jan 1, 2026 is below 4500.01, then the market resolves to Yes.
In total, this market has seen a volume of 49,065 transactions since it was first opened on March 19, 2025. There are 21,470 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 42,143,015 contracts.
Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2025 meeting? (24h volume: 747500)
- Will the Fed cut rates 3 times? (24h volume: 183584)
- Will Chris Murphy be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? (24h volume: 93948)
- Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in November 2025? (24h volume: 90198)
- Will the Department of Education be eliminated before Jan 1, 2026? (24h volume: 85118)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.10? (24h volume: 59265)
- Will Trump meet with Justin Trudeau before 2025? (24h volume: 57047)
- Will gold outperform Bitcoin in 2025? (24h volume: 53083)
- Will legislation extending enhanced ACA premium tax credits becomes law before Jan 1, 2026? (24h volume: 46434)
- Donald Trump out this year? (24h volume: 45834)
