Kalshi has reported 42,227 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q4 2025?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.
The market currently is implying a 45% chance for "Above 3.5%", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 45% probability.
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 3.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
In total, this market has seen a volume of 102,472 transactions since it was first opened on October 24, 2025. There are 31,302 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 4,294,429 contracts.
Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:
- Will the President sign Executive Orders between Jan 4, 2026 and Jan 10, 2026? (24h volume: 358894)
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their January 2026 meeting? (24h volume: 294925)
- Will Trump next nominate Judy Shelton as Fed Chair? (24h volume: 249235)
- Will Ali Khamenei leave Supreme Leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027? (24h volume: 214867)
- Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump (24h volume: 202118)
- Will the government be shut down on January 31? (24h volume: 141933)
- Will Trump buy Greenland? (24h volume: 132877)
- Will Tim Walz leave the governorship of Minnesota after Issuance and before February 2026? (24h volume: 111901)
- Will Jamie Dimon be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? (24h volume: 102870)
- Will the United States acquire any part of Greenland before 2029? (24h volume: 98431)
