Kalshi has reported 11,931 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q3 2025?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.
The market currently is implying a 87% chance for "Above 2.5%", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 87% probability.
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 2.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
In total, this market has seen a volume of 335,902 transactions since it was first opened on July 10, 2025. There are 117,647 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 8,208,149 contracts.
Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:
- Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2025 meeting? (24h volume: 723312)
- Will a representative of the Republican party win the NYC Mayor race in 2025? (24h volume: 348709)
- Will Trump buy Greenland? (24h volume: 225627)
- Donald Trump out this year? (24h volume: 207332)
- Will Trump visit Germany in the first year? (24h volume: 188249)
- Will Curtis Sliwa drop out of the NYC Mayoral race? (24h volume: 160778)
- Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? (24h volume: 100723)
- Will the federal government shut down for more than 60 days? (24h volume: 91254)
- Will Jack Ciattarelli win the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election? (24h volume: 79728)
- Will the Department of Education be eliminated before Jan 1, 2026? (24h volume: 76199)
