Kalshi has reported 18,028 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.
The market currently is implying a 3% chance for "Before 2026", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 3% probability.
If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
In total, this market has seen a volume of 652,103 transactions since it was first opened on November 09, 2025. There are 285,453 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 12,683,083 contracts.
Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2025 meeting? (24h volume: 629273)
- Will Trump next nominate Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair? (24h volume: 209621)
- Will the Fed cut rates 2 times? (24h volume: 148941)
- Will Kash Patel leave the Trump Administration this year? (24h volume: 145097)
- Donald Trump out this year? (24h volume: 120396)
- Nicolás Maduro out in November? (24h volume: 91981)
- Who will get second place in the Mayor? (24h volume: 80804)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.05? (24h volume: 68502)
- Will Trump announce his new Chair of the Federal Reserve in 2025? (24h volume: 65462)
- Will legislation extending enhanced ACA premium tax credits becomes law before Jan 1, 2026? (24h volume: 54231)
