Kalshi has reported 11,804 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2026?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.
The market currently is implying a 5% chance for "Argentina", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 5% probability.
If a new free trade deal with Argentina has become law before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
In total, this market has seen a volume of 112,653 transactions since it was first opened on May 08, 2025. There are 66,967 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 11,170,513 contracts.
Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2025 meeting? (24h volume: 383250)
- Will Mark Kelly be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? (24h volume: 95763)
- Will legislation extending enhanced ACA premium tax credits becomes law before Jan 1, 2026? (24h volume: 84898)
- Nicolás Maduro out in November? (24h volume: 59932)
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.05? (24h volume: 53103)
- Will the Fed cut rates 2 times? (24h volume: 47078)
- Nicolás Maduro out this year? (24h volume: 38331)
- Donald Trump out this year? (24h volume: 36551)
- Will core inflation rise more than 0.2% in November? (24h volume: 25636)
- Will the Nasdaq-100 be between 23500 and 23999.99 at the end of 2025? (24h volume: 23397)
